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Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Hamburger SV
1.10
Total xG
3.29
VfB Stuttgart
2.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.67 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Albert Grønbæk on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Maximilian Mittelstädt not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Possession: VfB Stuttgart averaged 57.4% possession in recent matches, Hamburger SV 40.6%
- Form: VfB Stuttgart won 3 of their last 5 matches, Hamburger SV suffered 3 defeats
- Shots on target: VfB Stuttgart averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games, Hamburger SV 3.8
Risks
- Rest days: VfB Stuttgart with 3 days since their last match
- Away: VfB Stuttgart conceded 2.33 goals per match away from home in the league this season
- Squad: VfB Stuttgart without M. Mittelstädt, who started in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Hamburger SV17%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart61%
Double chance
Hamburger SV or draw39%
VfB Stuttgart or draw83%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
1:3
7%
0:3
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- VfB Stuttgart: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Hamburger SV: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Hamburger SV: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Hamburger SV 3-5-2 · VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 24 N. Capaldo
- 33 S. Bornauw
- 17 W. Omari
- 3 D. Wolfe
- 5 M. Adeline
- 4 B. Nadir
- 28 M. Muheim
- 37 L. Lemke
- 20 F. Ferreira Vieira
- 15 Y. Yurary Poulsen
VfB Stuttgart
- 41 D. Seimen
- 4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 24 J. Chabot
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 16 A. Karazor
- 6 A. Stiller
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 26 D. Undav
- 18 J. Leweling
- 9 E. Demirović
Substitutes
- 38 A. Røssing-Lelesiit
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 9 T. Moffi
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 11 A. Erlykke
- 43 S. Nandja
- 22 K. Amoako
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 21 G. Prömel
- 10 C. Führich
- 14 L. Jaquez
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 22 L. Assignon
- 20 L. Stergiou
- 44 L. Sauer
- 47 Y. Spalt
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