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Werder Bremen – Paderborn2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Werder Bremen
1.62
Total xG
2.81
Paderborn
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Werder Bremen | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −1.11 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.69 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Werder Bremen average 3 goals per game at home in the league this season, Paderborn 0 goals in 2 away games
- Shots on target: Werder Bremen average 6 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Paderborn 2.8 per game
Risks
- xG: Werder Bremen averaged 1.18 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 2 goals per game
- Defence: Werder Bremen conceded 2 goals per game in the last 5 games, Paderborn 1.4 per game
All probabilities
Result
Werder Bremen46%
Draw28%
Paderborn27%
Double chance
Werder Bremen or draw73%
Paderborn or draw54%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Werder Bremen: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Borussia Dortmund: 2 goals (88', 90+2')
- Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)
Lineups
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1 · Paderborn 3-1-4-2
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 13 A. de Matos Soares
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 15 L. Reis
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 20 I. San José Cantalejo
- 17 M. Grüll
- 10 N. Füllkrug
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 17 L. Curda
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 40 G. Vidović
- 23 R. Obermair
- 30 S. Marino
- 27 S. Tigges
Substitutes
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 4 N. Stark
- 8 M. Weiser
- 30 A. Schlager
- 19 K. Quetant
- 26 C. Itten
- 3 O. Wójcik
- 23 D. Stalmach
- 38 P. Erevbenagie
- 34 D. Soylu
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 38 D. Zeitler
- 9 R. Philippe
- 20 F. Götze
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 6 T. Baack
- 7 O. Meier
- 29 C. Lippmann
- 11 S. Michel
- 2 R. Müller
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