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Elversberg – FC Augsburg4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Elversberg
1.72
Total xG
3.27
FC Augsburg
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Elversberg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.77 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.32 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 12% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Michael Gregoritsch on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Defense: FC Augsburg allowed 2.87 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.6 goals per game
- Possession: Elversberg averaged 45.2% possession per game over the last 5 games, FC Augsburg 37.8% per game
Risks
- Attack: FC Augsburg scored 2.6 goals per game in the league this season, Elversberg conceded 1.6 goals per game
- Squad: Elversberg without F. Onyeka, in the starting XI in 3 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Elversberg41%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg34%
Double chance
Elversberg or draw66%
FC Augsburg or draw59%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Augsburg: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Augsburg: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Augsburg: dropped a lead in 6 of 11 games (13 points lost)
- FC Augsburg: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Elversberg 4-2-3-1 · FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1
Elversberg
- 20 N. Kristof
- 30 J. Gyamerah
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 10 N. Darvich
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
FC Augsburg
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 35 A. Juma Bah
- 5 C. Matsima
- 2 C. Brackelmann
- 27 M. Wolf
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 16 H. Behrens
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 21 A.Ibrahimovic
- 9 R. Duarte Ribeiro
Substitutes
- 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
- 3 F. Le Joncour
- 6 A. Condé
- 9 N. Futkeu
- 24 L. Schnellbacher
- 26 L. Sirch
- 28 T. Boss
- 29 T. Zimmerschied
- 17 J. Schmahl
- 15 R. Adam
- 30 A. Kade
- 10 M. Kömür
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 22 N. Labrović
- 7 Seol Young-Woo
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
- 37 T. Schnitzer
- 39 U. Ogundu
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