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Paderborn – Hamburger SV1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Paderborn
1.71
Total xG
2.86
Hamburger SV
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paderborn | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −1.41 | |
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.77 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.48 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Albert Grønbæk on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Hamburger SV concede 3 goals per game away in the league this season, Paderborn 1.33 at home
- Shots: Paderborn averaged 14.4 shots per game in recent matches, Hamburger SV 11.8
Risks
- Table: Hamburger SV are 9th in the league with 9 points, Paderborn are 16th with 5 points
- Form: Hamburger SV won 3 of their last 5 matches, Paderborn won 1
All probabilities
Result
Paderborn49%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV24%
Double chance
Paderborn or draw76%
Hamburger SV or draw51%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.71 : 1.15, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Hamburger SV: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Paderborn 3-5-2 · Hamburger SV 3-5-2
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 17 L. Curda
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 40 G. Vidović
- 23 R. Obermair
- 30 S. Marino
- 27 S. Tigges
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 43 S. Nandja
- 33 S. Bornauw
- 17 W. Omari
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi
- 5 M. Adeline
- 4 B. Nadir
- 28 M. Muheim
- 3 D. Wolfe
- 15 Y. Yurary Poulsen
- 20 F. Ferreira Vieira
Substitutes
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 38 D. Zeitler
- 9 R. Philippe
- 20 F. Götze
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 6 T. Baack
- 29 C. Lippmann
- 11 S. Michel
- 2 R. Müller
- 38 A. Røssing-Lelesiit
- 24 N. Capaldo
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 18 B. Jatta
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 9 T. Moffi
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 11 A. Erlykke
- 37 L. Lemke
- 22 K. Amoako
- 48 J. D. B. Mouelle
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