Match report →
FC Augsburg – FC Union Berlin1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Augsburg
2.00
Total xG
3.26
FC Union Berlin
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Augsburg | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Robin Fellhauer on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 98% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.3 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Augsburg scores 2.33 goals per game at home in the league, FC Union Berlin 0 goals in 2 away games
- Table: FC Augsburg is 10th in the league with 8 points, FC Union Berlin is 17th with 5 points
- Shots: FC Augsburg averages 5.8 shots on target per game in recent matches, FC Union Berlin 3.2 per game
Risks
- Squad: FC Augsburg without N. Banks, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: FC Union Berlin won 2 of the 4 direct meetings, FC Augsburg 1
All probabilities
Result
FC Augsburg53%
Draw24%
FC Union Berlin23%
Double chance
FC Augsburg or draw77%
FC Union Berlin or draw47%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.00 : 1.26, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Union Berlin: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against FSV Mainz 05: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- FC Augsburg: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 12 games)
- FC Augsburg with Michael Gregoritsch starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1 · FC Union Berlin 4-2-3-1
FC Augsburg
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 35 A. Juma Bah
- 5 C. Matsima
- 2 C. Brackelmann
- 27 M. Wolf
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 16 H. Behrens
- 30 A. Kade
- 21 A.Ibrahimovic
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
FC Union Berlin
- 1 F. Rønnow
- 19 J. Haberer
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
- 2 F. Uduokhai
- 15 T. Rothe
- 13 A. Schafer
- 8 R. Khedira
- 11 W. Jeong
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 9 L. Burcu
- 21 T. Skarke
Substitutes
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 10 M. Kömür
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 22 N. Labrović
- 9 R. Duarte Ribeiro
- 7 Seol Young-Woo
- 37 T. Schnitzer
- 39 U. Ogundu
- 31 M. Raab
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 17 D. Köhn
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 6 A. Kemlein
- 7 O. Burke
- 27 M. Ljubičić
- 29 E. Latte Lath
- 32 M. Gray
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