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VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
VfB Stuttgart
2.65
Total xG
3.58
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.19 | +1.19 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.87 | |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Josha Vagnoman not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Franck Honorat not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: VfB Stuttgart score 2 goals per game at home in the league, Mönchengladbach concede 3.33 goals per game away
- Form: Mönchengladbach lost all 6 games in the league this season, while VfB Stuttgart won 2 of their last 5 games
- Shots: VfB Stuttgart averaged 6.2 shots on target per game in recent matches, Mönchengladbach 4.6 shots on target per game
Risks
- Rest days: VfB Stuttgart with 3 days since their last match
- Form: VfB Stuttgart lost 4 of their 6 league games this season and sit in 13th place
All probabilities
Result
VfB Stuttgart73%
Draw17%
Borussia Mönchengladbach10%
Double chance
VfB Stuttgart or draw90%
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw27%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.65 : 0.93, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
6%
4:1
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
- Borussia Mönchengladbach with Hugo Bolin starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (11/11 games, last 30)
Lineups
VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1
VfB Stuttgart
- 41 D. Seimen
- 22 L. Assignon
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 16 A. Karazor
- 6 A. Stiller
- 44 L. Sauer
- 9 E. Demirović
- 10 C. Führich
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 M. Nicolas
- 14 D. Hashioka
- 16 P. Sander
- 2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 29 J. Scally
- 47 Z. Uno
- 10 F. Neuhaus
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 38 H. Bolin
- 36 W. Mohya
- 18 S. Machino
Substitutes
- 21 G. Prömel
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 26 D. Undav
- 24 J. Chabot
- 20 L. Stergiou
- 18 J. Leweling
- 47 Y. Spalt
- 25 R. Hack
- 7 K. Stöger
- 33 D. Batz
- 22 Y. Konoplia
- 20 D. Herold
- 34 M. Nguefack
- 39 I. Danfa
- 48 L. Schweers
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