Match report →
RB Leipzig – Elversberg4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
RB Leipzig
2.67
Total xG
3.79
Elversberg
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | RB Leipzig | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.76 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Christopher Nkunku not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ridle Baku on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 98% available) | ||
| Strong home record (3.1 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: RB Leipzig scored 4.67 goals per match at home in the league this season and conceded 0 goals in 3 home matches
- Defense: Elversberg allowed 2.45 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.8 goals per match
Risks
- Rest days: RB Leipzig with 3 days since their last match
- Table: Elversberg is ahead of RB Leipzig in the league this season with 10 points from 6 matches to 9 points
All probabilities
Result
RB Leipzig69%
Draw18%
Elversberg13%
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw87%
Elversberg or draw31%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.552%
Under 3.548%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.67 : 1.12, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
4:1
5%
2:2
5%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- RB Leipzig: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Elversberg: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 6 games)
Lineups
RB Leipzig 4-5-1 · Elversberg 4-2-3-1
RB Leipzig
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 4 W. Orban
- 3 M. Esteve
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 20 R. Reitz
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 27 T. Gomis
Elversberg
- 20 N. Kristof
- 30 J. Gyamerah
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 17 J. Schmahl
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
Substitutes
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
- 14 C. Baumgartner
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 17 R. Baku
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 22 D. Raum
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 10 B. Gruda
- 2 A. Koné
- 39 W. Campbell
- 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
- 3 F. Le Joncour
- 6 A. Condé
- 9 N. Futkeu
- 26 L. Sirch
- 28 T. Boss
- 40 F. Onyeka
- 15 R. Adam
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →