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FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
FSV Mainz 05
1.89
Total xG
3.08
Werder Bremen
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FSV Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.78 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.39 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.39 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Eren Dinkçi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.4 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Mainz is 5th in the league this season with 10 points, Werder Bremen is 8th with 9 points
- Away: Werder Bremen conceded 2.33 goals per game in 3 away matches in the league this season
- Attack: Mainz generated 2.17 xG per game in 6 league matches this season
Risks
- Home: Mainz conceded 2.33 goals per game in 3 home matches in the league this season
- Form: Werder Bremen remained undefeated in their last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 draws
All probabilities
Result
FSV Mainz 0552%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen23%
Double chance
FSV Mainz 05 or draw77%
Werder Bremen or draw48%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.89 : 1.20, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Werder Bremen: 87% of all goals in the second half (13 of 15, last 11 games)
- Niclas Füllkrug: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
- FSV Mainz 05: 61% of all goals in the first half (14 of 23, last 12 games)
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2 · Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
FSV Mainz 05
- 1 A. Schwolow
- 21 D. Vieira da Costa
- 4 S. Posch
- 48 K. Potulski
- 19 A. Caci
- 7 J. Lee
- 6 K. Sano
- 10 N. Amiri
- 2 P. Mwene
- 23 S. Becker
- 9 P. Tietz
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 13 A. de Matos Soares
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 15 L. Reis
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 8 M. Weiser
- 20 I. San José Cantalejo
- 17 M. Grüll
- 10 N. Füllkrug
Substitutes
- 5 E. Martel
- 11 R. Königsdörffer
- 15 L. Maloney
- 30 S. Widmer
- 8 P. Nebel
- 17 B. Hollerbach
- 3 F. Gruber
- 40 M. Kinzig
- 47 R. Nakuzola
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 14 S. Lynen
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 30 A. Schlager
- 19 K. Quetant
- 26 C. Itten
- 3 O. Wójcik
- 23 D. Stalmach
- 38 P. Erevbenagie
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