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TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
TSG Hoffenheim
1.63
Total xG
3.47
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | TSG Hoffenheim | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.78x league average) | +1.40 | |
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.06 | +1.06 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.96 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.90 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.62 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.52 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Bambasé Conté on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Bayer 04 Leverkusen won their last 5 matches, TSG Hoffenheim lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Attack: Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2.67 goals per game away in the league this season, TSG Hoffenheim concede 2.33 goals per game at home
- Table: Bayer 04 Leverkusen sit 4th in the league with 13 points after 6 matches, TSG Hoffenheim are 16th with 6 points
Risks
- Away form: Bayer 04 Leverkusen concede 2.67 goals per game away in the league this season
- Head-to-head: TSG Hoffenheim won 2 of the 4 head-to-head matches against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
All probabilities
Result
TSG Hoffenheim33%
Draw25%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen42%
Double chance
TSG Hoffenheim or draw58%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw67%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.63 : 1.84, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
TSG Hoffenheim 4-4-2 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 5 O. Kabak
- 28 K. Machida
- 39 M. Rots
- 22 A. Prass
- 18 W. Burger
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 14 A. Daghim
- 11 F. Asllani
- 10 A. Hložek
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1 M. Flekken
- 4 J. Quansah
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 2 F. Medina
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 6 I. Fernández Carballo
- 24 A. García Serrano
- 19 M. Diaby
- 30 I. Maza
- 23 N. Tella
- 14 P. Schick
Substitutes
- 15 V. Gendrey
- 2 R. Hranáč
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 9 M. Moerstedt
- 37 L. Philipp
- 13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
- 19 T. Lemperle
- 20 B. Conté
- 29 N. Abraha
- 32 C. Lenz
- 22 V. Boniface
- 28 J. Blaswich
- 17 L. Vázquez Iglesias
- 10 M. Tillman
- 8 R. Andrich
- 7 J. Hofmann
- 5 L. Badé
- 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
- 15 T. Oermann
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