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Borussia Dortmund – Eintracht Frankfurt1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Dortmund
2.56
Total xG
3.53
Eintracht Frankfurt
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −1.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| Maximilian Beier on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Can Uzun on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Borussia Dortmund score 2.33 goals per match at home in the league, Eintracht Frankfurt concede 3.33 goals per match away
- Table: Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd with 0.67 goals conceded per match in the league, Eintracht Frankfurt are 13th with 2.67 goals conceded per match
Risks
- Away: Eintracht Frankfurt score 2 goals per match away in the league
- xG: Borussia Dortmund generated 1.79 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1 goal per match
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Dortmund71%
Draw18%
Eintracht Frankfurt11%
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw89%
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw29%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.56 : 0.97, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
4:0
5%
4:1
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Borussia Dortmund: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Werder Bremen: 2 goals (80', 85')
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Borussia Dortmund: 5 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- Borussia Dortmund: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1 · Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 5 R. Bensebaini
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 25 J. Veerman
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 24 D. Svensson
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 9 S. Guirassy
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 34 N. Collins
- 4 R. Koch
- 3 L. Brassier
- 2 E. Baum
- 20 R. Doan
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
- 8 F. Chaïbi
- 9 J. Burkardt
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
Substitutes
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 33 A. Meyer
- 39 F. Mane
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 14 M. Beier
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 22 K. Gadou
- 40 S. Inacio
- 44 E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
- 42 C. Uzun
- 6 O. Højlund
- 29 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 26 K. Kosugi
- 31 P. Arrhov
- 27 M. Götze
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 7 A. Knauff
- 37 J. Maluze
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