Match report →
FC Köln – Schalke 040 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Köln
1.66
Total xG
2.87
Schalke 04
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Köln | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.3 vs 1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| Ellyes Skhiri not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| M. Wöber not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| K. Karaman not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Köln score 2 goals per match at home in the league this season, Schalke 04 concede 2 per match away
- Shots: FC Köln have averaged 4.8 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Schalke 04 3.2 per match
- Table: FC Köln are 12th in the league this season with 7 points, Schalke 04 are 15th with 5 points
Risks
- Personnel: T. Dallinga and R. Ache are missing, having scored 3 of the 8 league goals for FC Köln players this season (38%)
- Defence: Schalke 04 conceded 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 matches, FC Köln 1.8 per match
All probabilities
Result
FC Köln46%
Draw27%
Schalke 0426%
Double chance
FC Köln or draw74%
Schalke 04 or draw54%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.66 : 1.21, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Köln: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
FC Köln 4-2-3-1 · Schalke 04 5-3-2
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 28 S. Sebulonsen
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 3 B. Sosa
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 5 T. Krauß
- 37 L. Maina
- 47 M. Moore
- 10 S. El Mala
- 30 M. Bülter
Schalke 04
- 1 L. Karius
- 29 E. Dina Ebimbe
- 5 T. Becker
- 25 N. Katić
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 8 R. Gosens
- 23 S. El-Faouzi
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 20 J. Chikwubuike Adamu
- 7 H. Hwang
Substitutes
- 7 G. Waldschmidt
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 2 J. Schmied
- 20 R. Zieler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 19 M. El Mala
- 14 G. Mensah
- 11 R. Heskey
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 22 K. Müller
- 10 E. Džeko
- 17 A. Gantenbein
- 33 V. Becker
- 14 J. Bachmann
- 43 M. Ayhan
- 38 L. Vozar
- 11 B. Lasme
- 27 F. Porath
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