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SC Freiburg – FC Bayern München1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
SC Freiburg
1.26
Total xG
3.98
FC Bayern München
2.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.06 | +1.06 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.67 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Attack strength (2.29x league average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Igor Matanovic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Yannik Engelhardt not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Ismael Saibari on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Luis Díaz not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Aleksandar Pavlovic not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Joshua Kimmich not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alphonso Davies on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 71% available) |
Key factors
- Offense: FC Bayern München scores 3.67 goals per game in the league this season, SC Freiburg 2.5 per game
- Tactics: FC Bayern München averages 11 shots on target per game in recent matches, SC Freiburg 4.6 per game
- Head-to-head: FC Bayern München won all 4 direct meetings since September 2024
Risks
- Squad: L. Díaz Marulanda, A. Pavlović and J. Musiala are out, scoring 7 of the 21 league goals for Bayern this season (33%)
- Home: SC Freiburg scores 3.67 goals per game at home in the league this season and concedes 0.67 per game
All probabilities
Result
SC Freiburg15%
Draw18%
FC Bayern München67%
Double chance
SC Freiburg or draw33%
FC Bayern München or draw85%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Over 3.556%
Under 3.544%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.26 : 2.72, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:3
8%
0:3
6%
2:2
6%
1:4
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Keisuke Goto: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Bayern München: 69% of all goals in the second half (27 of 39, last 12 games)
Lineups
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1 · FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 29 P. Treu
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 6 P. Osterhage
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 9 L. Höler
FC Bayern München
- 40 J. Urbig
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 4 J. Tah
- 11 N. Brown
- 27 K. Laimer
- 8 T. Bischof
- 17 M. Olise
- 42 L. Karl
- 7 S. Gnabry
- 9 H. Kane
Substitutes
- 17 L. Kübler
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 31 I. Matanovic
- 30 C. Günter
- 21 F. Müller
- 32 V. Grifo
- 22 C. Irié
- 42 K. Goto
- 20 R. Yamamoto
- 23 S. Boey
- 47 D. Daiber
- 26 S. Ulreich
- 21 H. Ito
- 19 A. Davies
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 30 C. Kiala
- 35 J. Bärtl
- 46 T. Binder
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