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FC Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Bayern München
3.09
Total xG
4.22
Borussia Dortmund
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.95 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.83 | |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | −0.79 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Luis Díaz not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nathaniel Brown on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tom Bischof on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Fábio Silva on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Bayern averages 6 goals per match at home in the league this season, Dortmund 1.33 per match away
- Head-to-head: FC Bayern won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Dortmund, with 2 draws and 0 losses
- Shots: FC Bayern averages 9.8 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Dortmund 6 per match
Risks
- Defense: Dortmund conceded 0.57 goals per match in 7 league matches this season
- Table: Dortmund earned 17 points from 7 league matches this season and is level on points with FC Bayern
All probabilities
Result
FC Bayern München75%
Draw15%
Borussia Dortmund10%
Double chance
FC Bayern München or draw90%
Borussia Dortmund or draw25%
No draw85%
Goals
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Over 3.561%
Under 3.539%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
3:1
From xG 3.09 : 1.13, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
3:0
7%
4:1
6%
4:0
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Werder Bremen: 2 goals (80', 85')
- Borussia Dortmund: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- FC Bayern München: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Borussia Dortmund: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- FC Bayern München: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Borussia Dortmund: 4 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
Lineups
FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
FC Bayern München
- 40 J. Urbig
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 3 M. Kim
- 19 A. Davies
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 17 M. Olise
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 7 S. Gnabry
- 9 H. Kane
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 14 M. Beier
- 25 J. Veerman
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 24 D. Svensson
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 9 S. Guirassy
Substitutes
- 11 N. Brown
- 23 S. Boey
- 42 L. Karl
- 8 T. Bischof
- 26 S. Ulreich
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 21 H. Ito
- 4 J. Tah
- 46 T. Binder
- 33 A. Meyer
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 39 F. Mane
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 5 R. Bensebaini
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 40 S. Inacio
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