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Elversberg – FSV Mainz 054 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Elversberg
1.49
Total xG
3.39
FSV Mainz 05
1.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Elversberg | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.74x league average) | +1.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.06 | +1.06 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −1.02 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| Jae-sung Lee on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: FSV Mainz 05 averaged 3.33 goals scored per away game in the league, Elversberg concede 2.33 per game at home
- Shots on target: FSV Mainz 05 averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Elversberg 2.6 per game
Risks
- Form: FSV Mainz 05 suffered 3 losses in their last 5 matches
- Defense: FSV Mainz 05 conceded 2.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Elversberg29%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0546%
Double chance
Elversberg or draw54%
FSV Mainz 05 or draw71%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.49 : 1.89, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Elversberg: 7 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 6 games)
- Elversberg: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 7 games)
- Elversberg: 50% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (4 of 8)
Lineups
Elversberg 4-2-3-1 · FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Elversberg
- 20 N. Kristof
- 26 L. Sirch
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 40 F. Onyeka
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
FSV Mainz 05
- 27 R. Zentner
- 21 D. Vieira da Costa
- 4 S. Posch
- 48 K. Potulski
- 19 A. Caci
- 8 P. Nebel
- 6 K. Sano
- 10 N. Amiri
- 2 P. Mwene
- 23 S. Becker
- 9 P. Tietz
Substitutes
- 39 W. Campbell
- 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
- 3 F. Le Joncour
- 6 A. Condé
- 9 N. Futkeu
- 24 L. Schnellbacher
- 28 T. Boss
- 17 J. Schmahl
- 15 R. Adam
- 5 E. Martel
- 11 R. Königsdörffer
- 15 L. Maloney
- 16 S. Bell
- 30 S. Widmer
- 7 J. Lee
- 17 B. Hollerbach
- 3 F. Gruber
- 1 A. Schwolow
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