Match report →
FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Augsburg
1.49
Total xG
3.41
SC Freiburg
1.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +1.32 | |
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.08 | +1.08 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.90 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.64 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Calvin Brackelmann not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Igor Matanovic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: SC Freiburg is 3rd in the league this season with 13 points from 7 matches, FC Augsburg is 9th with 9 points
- Form: FC Augsburg is winless in its last 5 matches (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
- Attack: FC Augsburg scored 2.43 goals per match in the league this season, SC Freiburg 2.29 goals per match
Risks
- Form: SC Freiburg suffered 3 losses in its last 5 matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)
- Squad: SC Freiburg without P. Treu, in the starting XI in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
FC Augsburg29%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg47%
Double chance
FC Augsburg or draw53%
SC Freiburg or draw71%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.49 : 1.92, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Freiburg: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Augsburg: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Keisuke Goto: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Augsburg with Michael Gregoritsch starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (16/6 games, last 30)
- FC Augsburg: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1 · SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
FC Augsburg
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 5 C. Matsima
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 16 H. Behrens
- 30 A. Kade
- 21 A.Ibrahimovic
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 17 L. Kübler
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 9 L. Höler
Substitutes
- 10 M. Kömür
- 20 A. Claude Maurice
- 22 N. Labrović
- 27 M. Wolf
- 9 R. Duarte Ribeiro
- 7 Seol Young-Woo
- 37 T. Schnitzer
- 39 U. Ogundu
- 38 L. Husic
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 6 P. Osterhage
- 31 I. Matanovic
- 30 C. Günter
- 24 J. Huth
- 32 V. Grifo
- 5 A. Jung
- 22 C. Irié
- 42 K. Goto
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →