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Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Werder Bremen
1.61
Total xG
3.17
TSG Hoffenheim
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Werder Bremen | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −1.31 | |
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.08 | +1.08 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.84 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.83 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.49 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.27 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Eren Dinkçi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bambasé Conté not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexander Prass not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Vladimír Coufal on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: Werder Bremen scored 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 games, TSG Hoffenheim 2.4 goals per game
- xG: Werder Bremen averaged 2.01 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, TSG Hoffenheim 1.97 xG per game
- Possession: Werder Bremen recorded 50.8% possession in the last 5 games, TSG Hoffenheim 51% possession
Risks
- Head-to-head: TSG Hoffenheim won 3 of the 4 previous meetings against Werder Bremen, Werder Bremen 1
- Form: Werder Bremen recorded 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 games, TSG Hoffenheim 3 wins and 2 losses
All probabilities
Result
Werder Bremen38%
Draw26%
TSG Hoffenheim36%
Double chance
Werder Bremen or draw64%
TSG Hoffenheim or draw62%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.61 : 1.56, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 3.2 cards per game (35 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Werder Bremen: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 11 games)
Lineups
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1 · TSG Hoffenheim 3-5-2
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 13 A. de Matos Soares
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 15 L. Reis
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 8 M. Weiser
- 20 I. San José Cantalejo
- 17 M. Grüll
- 10 N. Füllkrug
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 5 O. Kabak
- 28 K. Machida
- 39 M. Rots
- 29 N. Abraha
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 18 W. Burger
- 14 A. Daghim
- 10 A. Hložek
- 11 F. Asllani
Substitutes
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 11 J. Njinmah
- 14 S. Lynen
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 30 A. Schlager
- 19 K. Quetant
- 26 C. Itten
- 3 O. Wójcik
- 23 D. Stalmach
- 34 V. Coufal
- 37 L. Philipp
- 13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
- 19 T. Lemperle
- 47 V. Lässig
- 32 C. Lenz
- 52 K. Gjasula
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