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Eintracht Frankfurt – Hamburger SV3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.38
Total xG
3.41
Hamburger SV
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.02 | +1.02 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Jonathan Burkardt on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Yussuf Poulsen not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Eintracht Frankfurt average 1.33 goals at home in the league, Hamburger SV concede 2.5 per game away
- Shots: Eintracht Frankfurt registered 5.4 shots on target per game in recent matches, Hamburger SV 3.8 per game
Risks
- Form: Hamburger SV won 3 of their last 5 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt won 2
- Table: Hamburger SV are 13th in the league with 9 points from 7 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt 15th with 8 points
All probabilities
Result
Eintracht Frankfurt66%
Draw20%
Hamburger SV14%
Double chance
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw86%
Hamburger SV or draw34%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.38 : 1.02, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
9%
1:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (13 points lost)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 35% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 17)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt 4-2-3-1 · Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 2 E. Baum
- 4 R. Koch
- 3 L. Brassier
- 26 K. Kosugi
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
- 20 R. Doan
- 42 C. Uzun
- 8 F. Chaïbi
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 43 S. Nandja
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 17 W. Omari
- 3 D. Wolfe
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 28 M. Muheim
- 37 L. Lemke
- 5 M. Adeline
- 11 A. Erlykke
- 9 T. Moffi
Substitutes
- 34 N. Collins
- 9 J. Burkardt
- 29 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 27 M. Götze
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 22 T. Chandler
- 7 A. Knauff
- 37 J. Maluze
- 38 A. Røssing-Lelesiit
- 10 M. Pherai
- 18 B. Jatta
- 33 S. Bornauw
- 27 P. Daka
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 22 K. Amoako
- 48 J. D. B. Mouelle
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