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FC Union Berlin – FC Köln1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Union Berlin
1.48
Total xG
2.96
FC Köln
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Union Berlin | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.02 | +1.02 |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| Ellyes Skhiri not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: FC Union Berlin and FC Köln each recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: In the last 3 meetings, there was 1 win for FC Union Berlin, 1 win for FC Köln and 1 draw
Risks
- Squad: FC Union Berlin without F. Uduokhai, in the starting XI in 5 of the last 5 matches
- Table: FC Köln is 14th with 8 points after 7 matches, while FC Union Berlin is 17th with 6 points
All probabilities
Result
FC Union Berlin36%
Draw27%
FC Köln36%
Double chance
FC Union Berlin or draw64%
FC Köln or draw64%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.48 : 1.48, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Union Berlin: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against FSV Mainz 05: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- FC Köln: 6 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- FC Union Berlin: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Union Berlin 3-4-1-2 · FC Köln 4-4-2
FC Union Berlin
- 1 F. Rønnow
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
- 5 M. Friedrich
- 8 R. Khedira
- 19 J. Haberer
- 13 A. Schafer
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 17 D. Köhn
- 30 K. Imeri
- 21 T. Skarke
- 9 L. Burcu
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 28 S. Sebulonsen
- 2 J. Schmied
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 3 B. Sosa
- 37 L. Maina
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 5 T. Krauß
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 30 M. Bülter
- 10 S. El Mala
Substitutes
- 31 M. Raab
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 11 W. Jeong
- 6 A. Kemlein
- 15 T. Rothe
- 7 O. Burke
- 29 E. Latte Lath
- 32 M. Gray
- 7 G. Waldschmidt
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 20 R. Zieler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 19 M. El Mala
- 14 G. Mensah
- 47 M. Moore
- 11 R. Heskey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
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