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Bayer 04 Leverkusen – VfB Stuttgart2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.21
Total xG
3.57
VfB Stuttgart
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.08 | +1.08 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.81 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Josha Vagnoman not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Angelo Stiller not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Maximilian Mittelstädt on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Leverkusen average 2.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Stuttgart concede 2 per game away
- Table: Leverkusen are 4th in the league with 13 points after 7 games, Stuttgart are 15th with 6 points
- Form: Leverkusen won 4 of their last 5 matches, Stuttgart registered 2 wins in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Head-to-head: Stuttgart won 2 of the 4 meetings against Leverkusen, winning the last match 3-1
All probabilities
Result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen56%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart22%
Double chance
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw78%
VfB Stuttgart or draw44%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.21 : 1.36, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1 · VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1 M. Flekken
- 4 J. Quansah
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 2 F. Medina
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 6 I. Fernández Carballo
- 24 A. García Serrano
- 17 L. Vázquez Iglesias
- 30 I. Maza
- 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
- 14 P. Schick
VfB Stuttgart
- 41 D. Seimen
- 18 J. Leweling
- 14 L. Jaquez
- 24 J. Chabot
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 16 A. Karazor
- 21 G. Prömel
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 26 D. Undav
- 10 C. Führich
- 9 E. Demirović
Substitutes
- 22 V. Boniface
- 28 J. Blaswich
- 10 M. Tillman
- 42 M. Amare Culbreath
- 8 R. Andrich
- 7 J. Hofmann
- 23 N. Tella
- 15 T. Oermann
- 39 K. Doganay
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 8 T. de Melo Tomás
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 22 L. Assignon
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 28 N. Nartey
- 47 Y. Spalt
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