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Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Schalke 04
1.09
Total xG
3.04
RB Leipzig
1.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.31x league average) | −1.17 | |
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.08 | +1.08 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.66 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.3 vs 1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 37% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Christopher Nkunku on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ridle Baku on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad: R. Gosens, A. Gantenbein and M. Wöber are missing; they scored 3 of 4 league goals for Schalke 04 players (75%)
- Attack: RB Leipzig average 2.86 goals per game in the league this season, while Schalke 04 average 0.57 per game
- Table: RB Leipzig are 6th in the league with 12 points from 7 matches, Schalke 04 are 16th with 6 points
Risks
- Away: RB Leipzig concede 3.67 goals per game away in the league this season and score 0.67 per game
- Home: Schalke 04 concede 0.33 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Schalke 0419%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig56%
Double chance
Schalke 04 or draw44%
RB Leipzig or draw81%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.09 : 1.96, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
9%
1:3
6%
0:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- RB Leipzig: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rômulo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
- RB Leipzig: 8 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Schalke 04 4-3-2-1 · RB Leipzig 4-5-1
Schalke 04
- 1 L. Karius
- 5 T. Becker
- 25 N. Katić
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 33 V. Becker
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 43 M. Ayhan
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 20 J. Chikwubuike Adamu
- 19 K. Karaman
- 7 H. Hwang
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 10 B. Gruda
- 20 R. Reitz
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
Substitutes
- 22 K. Müller
- 29 E. Dina Ebimbe
- 21 D. Ljubicic
- 10 E. Džeko
- 11 B. Lasme
- 36 J. Siebeking
- 27 F. Porath
- 35 J. N'Diaye
- 40 E. Gashi
- 27 T. Gomis
- 11 J. Bakayoko
- 35 M. Finkgräfe
- 14 C. Baumgartner
- 17 R. Baku
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 2 A. Koné
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