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Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.37
Total xG
2.88
Paderborn
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.08 | +1.08 |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Hugo Bolin not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th in the league with 3 points from 7 matches, Paderborn are 13th with 8 points
- Defense: Borussia Mönchengladbach concede 3.14 goals per match in the league this season, Paderborn 1.29 per match
Risks
- Home: Borussia Mönchengladbach score 2.33 goals per match at home in the league this season in 3 matches
- Away: Paderborn score 0.67 goals per match away from home in the league this season in 3 matches
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Mönchengladbach33%
Draw28%
Paderborn39%
Double chance
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw61%
Paderborn or draw67%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.37 : 1.50, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 3.5 cards per game (40 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach with Wael Mohya starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (10/8 games, last 30)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
Lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1 · Paderborn 3-1-4-2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 33 D. Batz
- 14 D. Hashioka
- 16 P. Sander
- 2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 29 J. Scally
- 47 Z. Uno
- 10 F. Neuhaus
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 25 R. Hack
- 36 W. Mohya
- 18 S. Machino
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 17 L. Curda
- 6 T. Baack
- 40 G. Vidović
- 23 R. Obermair
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 30 S. Marino
Substitutes
- 1 M. Nicolas
- 7 K. Stöger
- 17 J. Castrop
- 6 K. Itakura
- 22 Y. Konoplia
- 19 N. Kühn
- 23 J. Olschowsky
- 3 I. Lidberg
- 20 D. Herold
- 34 M. Nguefack
- 38 D. Zeitler
- 9 R. Philippe
- 20 F. Götze
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 27 S. Tigges
- 29 C. Lippmann
- 2 R. Müller
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