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Hamburger SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Hamburger SV
1.60
Total xG
3.02
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.75 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Yussuf Poulsen not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Hugo Bolin not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Hamburger SV won 3 of their last 5 games, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1
- Away: Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded 3 goals per game away in the league this season in 4 games
- Table: Hamburger SV is 15th in the league with 9 points, Borussia Mönchengladbach is 18th with 4 points
Risks
- Squad: Y. Yurary Poulsen and N. Capaldo are missing, having scored 3 of Hamburger SV's 8 league goals this season (38%)
- Defense: Hamburger SV allowed 1.89 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.4 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Hamburger SV41%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach32%
Double chance
Hamburger SV or draw68%
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw59%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.60 : 1.42, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against TSG Hoffenheim: 2 goals (81', 90+1')
- Borussia Mönchengladbach with Wael Mohya starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (11/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
Hamburger SV 3-5-2 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1
Hamburger SV
- 1 D. Heuer Fernandes
- 43 S. Nandja
- 33 S. Bornauw
- 17 W. Omari
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi
- 5 M. Adeline
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 28 M. Muheim
- 3 D. Wolfe
- 27 P. Daka
- 11 A. Erlykke
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 33 D. Batz
- 6 K. Itakura
- 16 P. Sander
- 2 F. Cristian Chiarodia
- 29 J. Scally
- 47 Z. Uno
- 10 F. Neuhaus
- 26 L. Ullrich
- 25 R. Hack
- 36 W. Mohya
- 18 S. Machino
Substitutes
- 38 A. Røssing-Lelesiit
- 15 Y. Yurary Poulsen
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 9 T. Moffi
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 19 O. Emerson Stange
- 37 L. Lemke
- 22 K. Amoako
- 48 J. D. B. Mouelle
- 9 F. Honorat
- 7 K. Stöger
- 17 J. Castrop
- 4 K. Diks
- 22 Y. Konoplia
- 23 J. Olschowsky
- 3 I. Lidberg
- 20 D. Herold
- 34 M. Nguefack
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