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RB Leipzig – FC Augsburg5 : 2
Why the model thinks so
RB Leipzig
3.32
Total xG
4.38
FC Augsburg
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.53 | |
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | +0.38 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Antonio Nusa on the bench (4 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Michael Gregoritsch on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Calvin Brackelmann not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.9 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: RB Leipzig scored 4.5 goals per game and conceded 0 in 4 home league matches
- Head-to-head: RB Leipzig won 3 of the 4 meetings with FC Augsburg with 1 draw
- Form: FC Augsburg are winless in their last 5 matches with 2 draws and 3 losses
Risks
- Rest days: RB Leipzig with 3 days since their last match
- Away: FC Augsburg scored 3 goals per game in 3 away league matches
All probabilities
Result
RB Leipzig80%
Draw13%
FC Augsburg8%
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw92%
FC Augsburg or draw20%
No draw87%
Goals
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.581%
Under 2.519%
Over 3.563%
Under 3.537%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
3:1
From xG 3.32 : 1.06, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
8%
2:1
7%
4:1
7%
4:0
6%
5:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Augsburg: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rômulo: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
- RB Leipzig: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Augsburg: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- FC Augsburg: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (14 points lost)
- RB Leipzig: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)
Lineups
RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1 · FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 10 B. Gruda
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 27 T. Gomis
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
FC Augsburg
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 5 C. Matsima
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 16 H. Behrens
- 30 A. Kade
- 21 A.Ibrahimovic
- 9 R. Duarte Ribeiro
Substitutes
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 14 C. Baumgartner
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 20 R. Reitz
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 3 M. Esteve
- 2 A. Koné
- 10 M. Kömür
- 20 A. Claude Maurice
- 22 N. Labrović
- 27 M. Wolf
- 7 Seol Young-Woo
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
- 37 T. Schnitzer
- 39 U. Ogundu
- 38 L. Husic
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