Match report →
FC Köln – Bayer 04 Leverkusen1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Köln
1.26
Total xG
3.32
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Köln | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.83x league average) | +1.16 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.66 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 28% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Bayer 04 Leverkusen score 2.25 goals per game in the league this season, FC Köln 1.12 per game
- Head-to-head: Bayer 04 Leverkusen won all 3 head-to-head meetings against FC Köln
Risks
- Rest days: Bayer 04 Leverkusen with 3 days since their last match
- Away: Bayer 04 Leverkusen concede 2.75 goals per game away in the league, FC Köln score 1.5 per game at home
All probabilities
Result
FC Köln22%
Draw24%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen54%
Double chance
FC Köln or draw46%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw78%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.26 : 2.06, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
8%
1:3
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Köln: 6 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- FC Köln: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
FC Köln 3-5-2 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
FC Köln
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 2 J. Schmied
- 22 J. Simpson-Pusey
- 5 T. Krauß
- 28 S. Sebulonsen
- 37 L. Maina
- 23 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 47 M. Moore
- 3 B. Sosa
- 30 M. Bülter
- 10 S. El Mala
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1 M. Flekken
- 4 J. Quansah
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 2 F. Medina
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 6 I. Fernández Carballo
- 24 A. García Serrano
- 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
- 10 M. Tillman
- 30 I. Maza
- 14 P. Schick
Substitutes
- 7 G. Waldschmidt
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 20 R. Zieler
- 29 J. Thielmann
- 19 M. El Mala
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 14 G. Mensah
- 11 R. Heskey
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 22 V. Boniface
- 29 E. Ben Seghir
- 28 J. Blaswich
- 17 L. Vázquez Iglesias
- 42 M. Amare Culbreath
- 8 R. Andrich
- 7 J. Hofmann
- 5 L. Badé
- 15 T. Oermann
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