Match report →
SC Freiburg – FC Union Berlin2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
SC Freiburg
2.10
Total xG
3.01
FC Union Berlin
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Freiburg | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.83 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.60 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.56 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: SC Freiburg score 3 goals per game at home in the league, FC Union Berlin concede 4 per game away
- Table: SC Freiburg are 4th in the league with 16 points from 8 games, FC Union Berlin 16th with 7 points
Risks
- Head-to-head: FC Union Berlin won 2 of the 4 meetings since November 2024, SC Freiburg none
- Form: SC Freiburg lost 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions
All probabilities
Result
SC Freiburg63%
Draw22%
FC Union Berlin14%
Double chance
SC Freiburg or draw86%
FC Union Berlin or draw37%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.10 : 0.92, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
11%
1:1
11%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Union Berlin: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against FSV Mainz 05: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- SC Freiburg: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Union Berlin: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- SC Freiburg: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Union Berlin: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1 · FC Union Berlin 4-1-3-2
SC Freiburg
- 1 M. Backhaus
- 29 P. Treu
- 28 M. Ginter
- 3 P. Lienhart
- 33 J. Makengo
- 8 M. Eggestein
- 16 Y. Engelhardt
- 19 J. Beste
- 14 Y. Suzuki
- 7 D. Scherhant
- 31 I. Matanovic
FC Union Berlin
- 1 F. Rønnow
- 19 J. Haberer
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
- 5 M. Friedrich
- 17 D. Köhn
- 8 R. Khedira
- 30 K. Imeri
- 13 A. Schafer
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 21 T. Skarke
- 9 L. Burcu
Substitutes
- 17 L. Kübler
- 37 M. Rosenfelder
- 6 P. Osterhage
- 30 C. Günter
- 9 L. Höler
- 21 F. Müller
- 32 V. Grifo
- 22 C. Irié
- 42 K. Goto
- 31 M. Raab
- 28 C. Trimmel
- 14 L. Querfeld
- 11 W. Jeong
- 23 A. Ilić
- 15 T. Rothe
- 7 O. Burke
- 29 E. Latte Lath
- 49 L. Güther
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →