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VfB Stuttgart – Werder Bremen1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
VfB Stuttgart
2.31
Total xG
3.44
Werder Bremen
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.05 | +1.05 |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.32 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.32 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Ermedin Demirovic on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Angelo Stiller not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Chuki on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: VfB Stuttgart score 2 goals per match at home in the league, Werder Bremen concede 2.25 per match away
- Goals: Werder Bremen scored 2.4 goals per match in their last 5 matches and conceded 1.6 per match
Risks
- Form: Werder Bremen have 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart have 1 win
- Table: Werder Bremen are 5th in the league after 8 matches, VfB Stuttgart are 13th
- Squad: VfB Stuttgart without A. Stiller, starting in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
VfB Stuttgart63%
Draw21%
Werder Bremen16%
Double chance
VfB Stuttgart or draw84%
Werder Bremen or draw37%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.31 : 1.13, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
9%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)
- Werder Bremen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Werder Bremen: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Borussia Dortmund: 2 goals (88', 90+2')
Lineups
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1 · Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
VfB Stuttgart
- 41 D. Seimen
- 14 L. Jaquez
- 24 J. Chabot
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 18 J. Leweling
- 21 G. Prömel
- 47 Y. Spalt
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 10 C. Führich
- 26 D. Undav
Werder Bremen
- 1 K. Jakob Hein
- 13 A. de Matos Soares
- 5 A. Pieper
- 32 M. Friedl
- 2 O. Deman
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 14 S. Lynen
- 18 E. Dinkci
- 15 L. Reis
- 17 M. Grüll
- 10 N. Füllkrug
Substitutes
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 9 E. Demirović
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 8 T. de Melo Tomás
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 22 L. Assignon
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 16 A. Karazor
- 28 N. Nartey
- 33 M. Schmetgens
- 11 J. Njinmah
- 4 N. Stark
- 20 I. San José Cantalejo
- 30 A. Schlager
- 19 K. Quetant
- 26 C. Itten
- 3 O. Wójcik
- 23 D. Stalmach
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