Match report →
FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern München1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FSV Mainz 05
1.15
Total xG
4.27
FC Bayern München
3.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FSV Mainz 05 | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.11x league average) | +2.21 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −1.08 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Phillip Tietz on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Phillipp Mwene not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Ismael Saibari not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tom Bischof on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alphonso Davies on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Mainz concede 2.5 goals per game at home in the league this season, while Bayern score 3.38 per game in the league
- Table: Bayern lead the Bundesliga with 18 points from 8 games, while Mainz sit 10th with 10 points
- Shots: Bayern average 8.2 shots on target per game in recent matches, compared to Mainz's 5.8 per game
Risks
- Away: Bayern score 1.75 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 5 goals per game at home
- Defense: Mainz allowed 1.96 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 2.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
FSV Mainz 0510%
Draw15%
FC Bayern München76%
Double chance
FSV Mainz 05 or draw24%
FC Bayern München or draw90%
No draw85%
Goals
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Over 3.562%
Under 3.539%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:3
From xG 1.15 : 3.12, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
0:3
7%
1:4
6%
0:4
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Bayern München: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FSV Mainz 05: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Michael Olise: 5 of 7 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- FC Bayern München: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2 · FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1
FSV Mainz 05
- 27 R. Zentner
- 21 D. Vieira da Costa
- 3 F. Gruber
- 48 K. Potulski
- 19 A. Caci
- 10 N. Amiri
- 6 K. Sano
- 7 J. Lee
- 30 S. Widmer
- 11 R. Königsdörffer
- 23 S. Becker
FC Bayern München
- 1 M. Neuer
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 4 J. Tah
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 17 M. Olise
- 42 L. Karl
- 11 N. Brown
- 9 H. Kane
Substitutes
- 5 E. Martel
- 24 S. Kawasaki
- 9 P. Tietz
- 15 L. Maloney
- 16 S. Bell
- 8 P. Nebel
- 17 B. Hollerbach
- 1 A. Schwolow
- 47 R. Nakuzola
- 23 S. Boey
- 3 M. Kim
- 8 T. Bischof
- 26 S. Ulreich
- 21 H. Ito
- 19 A. Davies
- 40 J. Urbig
- 46 T. Binder
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →