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TSG Hoffenheim – Schalke 042 : 1
Why the model thinks so
TSG Hoffenheim
2.55
Total xG
3.41
Schalke 04
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | TSG Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Adam Daghim on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Adam Hlozek on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad: M. Wöber and A. Gantenbein are missing, having scored 2 of the 4 league goals for Schalke 04 players this season (50%)
- Form: Hoffenheim won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Schalke 04 remained winless in their last 5 matches
- Shots: Hoffenheim averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Schalke 04 1.4 per match
Risks
- Rest days: Hoffenheim with 3 days since their last match
- Defense: Hoffenheim conceded 1.75 goals per match at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
TSG Hoffenheim73%
Draw18%
Schalke 049%
Double chance
TSG Hoffenheim or draw91%
Schalke 04 or draw27%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.55 : 0.86, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Schalke 04: 5 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 8 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- TSG Hoffenheim: 8 of 21 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
Lineups
TSG Hoffenheim 4-2-2-2 · Schalke 04 5-3-2
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 5 O. Kabak
- 28 K. Machida
- 39 M. Rots
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 18 W. Burger
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 22 A. Prass
- 19 T. Lemperle
- 11 F. Asllani
Schalke 04
- 1 L. Karius
- 21 D. Ljubicic
- 43 M. Ayhan
- 25 N. Katić
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 8 R. Gosens
- 23 S. El-Faouzi
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 19 K. Karaman
- 7 H. Hwang
Substitutes
- 14 A. Daghim
- 10 A. Hložek
- 9 M. Moerstedt
- 37 L. Philipp
- 13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
- 47 V. Lässig
- 29 N. Abraha
- 32 C. Lenz
- 46 J. Fields
- 22 K. Müller
- 20 J. Chikwubuike Adamu
- 29 E. Dina Ebimbe
- 10 E. Džeko
- 13 O. Ali
- 5 T. Becker
- 33 V. Becker
- 38 L. Vozar
- 11 B. Lasme
- 27 F. Porath
- 40 E. Gashi
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