Match report →
Paderborn – Eintracht Frankfurt2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Paderborn
1.66
Total xG
2.98
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paderborn | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.73 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| 21% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Younes Ebnoutalib on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away form: Eintracht Frankfurt has conceded 2.75 goals per game away in the league this season across 4 matches
- Form: Paderborn lost only 1 of their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 2 draws
Risks
- Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt averages 1.62 goals per game in the league this season, Paderborn 0.75 per game
- Defense: Paderborn allowed 1.60 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1 goal per game
All probabilities
Result
Paderborn44%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt29%
Double chance
Paderborn or draw71%
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw56%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.66 : 1.33, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 37% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 19)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- Eintracht Frankfurt: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
Lineups
Paderborn 3-5-2 · Eintracht Frankfurt 4-2-3-1
Paderborn
- 15 N. Noll
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 25 T. Scheller
- 22 M. Hansen
- 17 L. Curda
- 6 T. Baack
- 5 S. Castaneda
- 40 G. Vidović
- 23 R. Obermair
- 2 R. Müller
- 30 S. Marino
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 1 N. Atubolu
- 7 A. Knauff
- 4 R. Koch
- 3 L. Brassier
- 2 E. Baum
- 25 R. Nwadike
- 15 N. Aséko Nkili
- 20 R. Doan
- 42 C. Uzun
- 8 F. Chaïbi
- 9 J. Burkardt
Substitutes
- 18 M. Pieringer
- 38 D. Zeitler
- 9 R. Philippe
- 20 F. Götze
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 1 M. Schubert
- 3 J. Sticker
- 27 S. Tigges
- 29 C. Lippmann
- 34 N. Collins
- 6 O. Højlund
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib
- 31 P. Arrhov
- 40 K. Morais Vieira dos Santos
- 22 T. Chandler
- 35 M. Razak Engholm Pimpong
- 37 J. Maluze
- 23 N. Iličević
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