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Borussia Dortmund – Elversberg2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Dortmund
2.80
Total xG
3.72
Elversberg
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Dortmund | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.01 | +1.01 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.94 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Serhou Guirassy not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Borussia Dortmund score 2 goals per game at home in the league, Elversberg concede 2 goals per game away
- Table: Borussia Dortmund are in 2nd place with 18 points from 8 games, Elversberg are in 7th place with 13 points
Risks
- Personnel: S. Guirassy and I. Konstantelias are absent, having scored 4 of Dortmund's players' 13 league goals this season (31%)
- Rest days: Borussia Dortmund with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Dortmund75%
Draw16%
Elversberg9%
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw91%
Elversberg or draw25%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.80 : 0.92, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
6%
4:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Elversberg: 8 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 7 games)
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Werder Bremen: 2 goals (80', 85')
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Borussia Dortmund: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Borussia Dortmund: 78% of all goals in the second half (14 of 18, last 11 games)
- Elversberg: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 8 games)
Lineups
Borussia Dortmund 4-3-3 · Elversberg 4-2-3-1
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 24 D. Svensson
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 25 J. Veerman
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
Elversberg
- 20 N. Kristof
- 26 L. Sirch
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 31 M. Rohr
- 21 L. Günther
- 43 F. Keidel
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 25 L. Petkov
- 40 F. Onyeka
- 7 M. Krattenmacher
- 42 D. Mokwa Ntusu
Substitutes
- 33 A. Meyer
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 14 M. Beier
- 5 R. Bensebaini
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 40 S. Inacio
- 49 L. Reggiani
- 41 M. Albert
- 39 W. Campbell
- 2 L. Saa Nicholas K. Mickelson
- 3 F. Le Joncour
- 6 A. Condé
- 9 N. Futkeu
- 24 L. Schnellbacher
- 28 T. Boss
- 17 J. Schmahl
- 15 R. Adam
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