Ligue 1
Auxerre - Paris Saint Germain
01/23/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.0
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
28%
Away Win
48%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
40%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
52%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Offensive Mismatch: PSG's attack (2.22 goals/game) meets Auxerre's weak offense (0.78 goals/game) and vulnerable defense (1.56 goals conceded/game)
- Historical Dominance: PSG clearly dominated recent encounters with 4 wins in 5 matches and a goal difference of 12-2
- Form and Consistency: PSG's form (DWWWL) is significantly better than Auxerre's (DWLLL), who are on a 3-game losing streak
Risk Factors
- PSG's injury concerns: The long list of absentees for PSG could impact the team's performance
- Data conflict for PSG: Several players are listed in both the starting lineup and as injured, indicating an unclear personnel situation
- Auxerre's improved offense: Auxerre has recently scored more goals (1.4 per game) than their season average (0.82), suggesting potential danger
Overview
Auxerre, in 17th place with 12 points, hosts title contender Paris Saint Germain, who are 2nd with 42 points
The Ligue 1 match will take place on January 23, 2026, at 8:00 PM at the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
The home team is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while PSG aims to keep pace with the top of the table
Form
Auxerre: DWLLL - 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses from the last five games, including a three-game losing streak
Paris Saint Germain: DWWWL - 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last five matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Paris Saint Germain has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 2.22 goals per game compared to Auxerre's 0.78
PSG also scores an average of 2.25 times away from home
Defensively, PSG is also superior, conceding only 0.83 goals per game, while Auxerre concedes 1.56
Auxerre failed to score in 9 of 18 games
Head-to-Head
The record of the last five head-to-head matches clearly favors Paris Saint Germain with 4 wins and one draw
The goal difference of 12:2 for PSG underscores this dominance
The last encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for Paris Saint Germain
Key Players
For Auxerre, forward Lassine Sinayoko stands out with 6 season goals and 2 assists, and his form is on the rise
For Paris Saint Germain, Ousmane Dembélé is a key factor with 5 goals in 10 games
Vitinha shines as a playmaker with 7 season assists, and Bradley Barcola has already scored 6 goals
Goalkeepers
Donovan LĂ©on has been in goal for Auxerre in 16 matches, achieving 3 clean sheets
His counterpart, Lucas Chevalier of PSG, has 9 clean sheets in 16 appearances, 2 of which were away
Influences
The Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps has recently hosted games with an average of 2.6 goals
Auxerre has a poor record on natural grass with only one win and seven losses
In contrast, Paris Saint Germain is very successful on this surface with 7 wins in 10 matches and averages 2.25 goals away from home