Ligue 1
Metz - Olympique Lyonnais
01/25/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
0.8
2.9
2.1
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
12%
Draw
20%
Away Win
68%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
38%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
32%
Away or Draw
88%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Drastic form discrepancy: Lyon's perfect five-game winning streak contrasts with Metz's winless negative run
- Statistical superiority: Lyon's strong attack (1.5 goals/game) meets the league's most vulnerable defense (Metz, 2.22 goals conceded/game)
- Tactical dominance: Lyon's high possession (61%) and numerous shots on target (5.8) suggest they will control the flow of the game
Risk Factors
- Fatigue for Lyon: The visitors have had only three days to recover since their last match, which could lead to exhaustion
- Injury concerns: Both teams are weakened by absences, with Lyon missing 19% and Metz missing 16% of their season's goals
Overview
Metz, in 18th place with 12 points, hosts Olympique Lyonnais, 4th with 33 points, at the Stade Saint-Symphorien. The Ligue 1 match takes place on January 25, 2026, at 5:15 PM. It's a clear clash between a relegation candidate and a team fighting for European spots.
Form
Metz: LLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In the last 5 games, Metz has 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses
The team is in extremely poor form with no wins
Olympique Lyonnais: WWWWW
Olympique Lyonnais has won all of their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses)
The visitors arrive with a perfect winning streak
Statistics
Metz has scored an average of 1.06 goals per game this season and conceded 2.22
Olympique Lyonnais scores an average of 1.5 goals per game and concedes only 1.0
At home, Metz has a goal record of 7 scored to 10 conceded
Away from home, Lyon is stable with 11 goals scored and 11 conceded
Metz failed to score in 6 of 18 matches, while Lyon failed to score in only 3
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Olympique Lyonnais won 2, while Metz recorded only 1 victory, with 2 draws
The goal difference is 9:6 in favor of Olympique Lyonnais
The last meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Lyon
Olympique Lyonnais is considered the more dominant team recently
Key Players
Gauthier Hein is the key offensive player for Metz with 6 season goals and 4 assists
Habib Diallo has contributed 3 goals for the home team this season
Pavel Sulc is Olympique Lyonnais's top scorer with 8 season goals and is in great form
Afonso Moreira has proven to be an important provider with 5 assists
Corentin Tolisso has contributed 3 goals from midfield
Goalkeepers
Metz's goalkeeper, Jonathan Fischer, has kept 3 clean sheets in 18 season appearances
His counterpart, Dominik Greif of Olympique Lyonnais, has kept 9 clean sheets in 14 appearances, 4 of which were in away games
Influences
An average of 2.8 goals are scored per game at the Stade Saint-Symphorien
Metz's home record on natural grass is poor, with 3 wins and 7 losses
In contrast, Olympique Lyonnais has a strong record on natural grass with 6 wins and only 2 losses
These statistics suggest an advantage for the away team on this surface