Ligue 1
Rennes - Lorient
01/24/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.8
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
32%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
31%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Rennes' strong home record (1.73 goals per game, 0.82 conceded) meets Lorient's disastrous away defense (3.75 conceded per game)
- Lorient's Injury Crisis: The absence of top scorers Sambou Soumano (4 goals) and Tosin Aiyegun (3 goals) significantly weakens the visitors' attack
- Current Reality Trumps History: Although Lorient has a dominant H2H record, their current away performances and injury woes make another victory unlikely
Risk Factors
- Key Player Absences for Rennes: The loss of midfield engine Valentin Rongier and defender Przemyslaw Frankowski could impact Rennes' stability
- Lorient's Unbeaten Streak: Despite their league position, Lorient is unbeaten in five matches, suggesting high confidence and resilience
- H2H Psychological Edge: Lorient's perfect record in recent head-to-head matches might give them a mental advantage
Overview
Rennes, in 6th place in the table with 31 points, hosts Lorient, 12th with 22 points, at Roazhon Park
The Ligue 1 match takes place on January 24, 2026, at 5:00 PM
Rennes is looking to solidify a European spot, while Lorient aims to distance themselves further from the bottom of the table
Form
Rennes (Form: WLWWD) is in good shape with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last five matches
Lorient (Form: WWDDW) is in even better form, remaining unbeaten in their last five games with 3 wins and 2 draws
Based on recent form, Lorient has a slight edge, despite being significantly behind Rennes in the standings
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Rennes is strong offensively at home, scoring an average of 1.73 goals per game while conceding only 0.82
Lorient, on the other hand, has significant defensive problems away, conceding an average of 3.75 goals per game
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 11 of Rennes' 18 season matches
Both teams scored in a significant portion of their matches (Rennes 11 of 18, Lorient 10 of 18)
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Lorient has a perfect record with 5 wins
The goal difference also clearly favors Lorient at 11:3
The last meeting ended in a decisive 4-0 victory for Lorient
Historically, Lorient is clearly Rennes' bogey team
Key Players
For Rennes, striker Estéban Lepaul stands out with 8 season goals, supported by Breel Embolo with 5 goals
Valentin Rongier is showing a rising form trend and is crucial in Rennes' midfield
For Lorient, Pablo Pagis is the most dangerous attacker with 5 season goals
Jean-Victor Makengo and Bamba Dieng have also drawn attention with recent goals
Goalkeepers
In goal for Rennes is Brice Samba, who has kept 5 clean sheets this season and is showing rising form
His counterpart is Yvon Mvogo for Lorient, who has kept a clean sheet 3 times so far and is also in a strong phase according to the form trend
Influences
Roazhon Park is a high-scoring venue, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last five matches and 100% of games where both teams scored
Rennes has a strong record on natural grass (5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
Lorient, however, struggles on this surface, having won only one of their 8 games