Ligue 1
Le Havre - Monaco
01/24/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.5
1.9
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
37%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
63%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Battle of the out-of-form: Monaco's four consecutive losses (WLWWW) meet Le Havre's inconsistent form (LDLWD), making for an unpredictable match
- Defensive contrasts: Le Havre's strong home defense (0.75 goals conceded/game) faces Monaco's potent but inconsistent away attack, which in turn relies on a very vulnerable defense (2.5 goals conceded/game away)
- Numerous absences: Both teams are heavily weakened by injuries and suspensions, with Monaco missing the creativity of T. Minamino, while Le Havre must do without key defensive players like G. Lloris and goalkeeper M. Diaw
Risk Factors
- Monaco's disastrous away defense: Conceding an average of 2.5 goals per away game makes them extremely vulnerable, undermining their on-paper favorite status
- Contradictory goal statistics: The high predicted goals (3.45 total) conflict with the venue's history of low-scoring games (1.4 average) and both teams' recent goal droughts
- Historical head-to-head: Monaco is unbeaten against Le Havre in the last five meetings (2 wins, 3 draws), which contrasts with their current disastrous form
Overview
Le Havre, in 14th place with 19 points, hosts Monaco, who are in 9th place with 23 points. The Ligue 1 match will take place on January 24, 2026, at 7:00 PM at the Stade Océane. Both teams are in a crisis of form and are looking to end their negative trend.
Form
Both teams are struggling with their form. Le Havre (Form: LDLWD) has won only one of their last five games, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Monaco (Form: WLWWW) comes into this match with four consecutive defeats. Their record from the last five games is 1 win and 4 losses, indicating a significant slump in form. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Monaco has been more potent offensively throughout the season, averaging 1.56 goals per game compared to Le Havre's 0.89. However, Monaco's defense is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.83 goals, while Le Havre is at 1.33. Le Havre's defensive strength at home is particularly noteworthy, allowing only 0.75 goals per game. In contrast, Monaco's defense is very weak away from home, with 2.5 goals conceded per game. The Stade Océane averages only 1.4 goals per game.
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, Le Havre has failed to win against Monaco. Monaco won twice, while three matches ended in a draw. The goal difference from these meetings is 8-4 in favor of Monaco. The last encounter in August 2025 was won by Monaco 3-1.
Key Players
For Le Havre, midfielder Rassoul Ndiaye is a key creative player who has contributed 3 goals and 3 assists this season and is in rising form. For Monaco, striker Folarin Balogun is a central figure in attack with 4 seasonal goals. He is supported by Aleksandr Golovin, who is also in good form and has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist this season.
Goalkeepers
For Le Havre, Lionel Mpasi-Nzau will be in goal, having made only one appearance this season. Monaco's goal will be kept by Philipp Köhn. He has made 12 appearances this season, and the team has kept 2 clean sheets with him.
Influences
The Stade Océane is not a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of just 1.4 goals per game in recent matches. Le Havre's home defense is very solid, conceding only 0.75 goals per game. Monaco, on the other hand, has significant defensive issues away from home, conceding an average of 2.5 goals. Both teams are accustomed to the natural grass surface at the stadium.