Ligue 1
Olympique Marseille - Lens
01/24/2026, 08:05 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
3.3
2.0
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
24%
Away Win
52%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
48%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Lens's form advantage: Lens arrives with a perfect streak of five consecutive wins, while Marseille has shown inconsistent form with two losses in their last five games
- Defensive stability: With only 0.72 goals conceded per game, Lens has one of the best defenses in the league, giving them a clear advantage over Marseille (1.06 goals conceded)
- Offensive duel: Marseille's potent attack (2.28 goals/game) will face Lens's disciplined defense, which will be the decisive battle on the pitch
Risk Factors
- Absences on both sides: Key players are injured or suspended for both Marseille and Lens, which could affect the expected performance of both teams
- Balanced H2H record: Despite Lens's current strong form, the historical record of head-to-head encounters is quite balanced, which could point to a close game
- Marseille's home strength: Marseille is particularly potent in attack at the Stade Vélodrome, which will pose a major challenge for Lens's stable defense
Overview
A top Ligue 1 clash is scheduled as Olympique Marseille (3rd place, 35 points) hosts second-placed Lens (2nd place, 43 points)
The match will take place on January 24, 2026, at 9:05 PM at the Stade Vélodrome
Marseille aims to close the gap to the top, while Lens looks to solidify their position
Form
Olympique Marseille: WWLWL - 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games
Lens: WWWWW - an impressive winning streak of 5 consecutive victories
Lens enters this duel with significantly better form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Olympique Marseille has scored an average of 2.28 goals per game this season and conceded 1.06
Lens is defensively stronger with only 0.72 goals conceded per game and scores an average of 1.78 goals
In 11 of Marseille's season games, there were over 2.5 goals, the same for Lens
At Stade Vélodrome, there's an average of 2.6 goals per game, with 60% of matches seeing over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Olympique Marseille and 3 wins for Lens
The goal difference is balanced with 6:6 goals
The last encounter on October 25, 2025, was won by Lens 2-1
Key Players
Mason Greenwood is the top scorer for Marseille with 12 season goals
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has contributed 5 goals and 5 assists
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is a key midfielder with 2 goals and 2 assists
For Lens, Wesley Saïd is the most successful striker with 8 goals
Odsonne Édouard follows with 7 goals, while Florian Thauvin has scored 5 times
Goalkeepers
Marseille's Gerónimo Rulli has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Lens's Robin Risser has managed to keep his goal clean 7 times
Both goalkeepers are showing solid performances this season
Influences
Marseille is strong offensively at home, scoring 24 goals in 11 home games
Lens is also successful away, with 15 goals in 8 matches
Both teams are used to natural grass surfaces; Lens has an away record of 9 wins and 1 loss on this surface