Ligue 1
Nice - Brest
02/01/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.0
1.3
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
30%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Nice's improved offense (1.6 recent goals average) meets Brest's extremely vulnerable away defense (2.25 goals conceded per game)
- Nice's form trend is positive, while Brest shows a negative trend and has recently scored fewer goals than their season average
- Nice has a significant recovery disadvantage with only 3 days of rest compared to Brest's 7 days
Risk Factors
- Nice's home record this season is poor, with only 2 wins in 9 games
- The short recovery time for Nice (3 days) is a significant risk factor against a well-rested opponent
- Both defenses are vulnerable, making the outcome difficult to predict
Overview
Nice (14th place, 21 points) hosts Brest (12th place, 22 points) at the Allianz Riviera in a Ligue 1 match
The game will take place on February 1, 2026, at 5:15 PM
This is a mid-table clash between two closely ranked teams, both looking to distance themselves from the lower half of the table
Form
Nice form: DLWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In their last five matches, Nice has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Brest form: WLWLL
Brest has 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games and comes into this match on the back of two consecutive defeats
Statistics
Nice scores an average of 1.32 goals per game this season and concedes 1.89
Brest scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.63 goals per game
A key factor is Brest's away weakness, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game on the road
Nice is more stable defensively at home, conceding an average of 1.33 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Nice has won 2 times, Brest once, and 2 matches ended in a draw
The total goal difference from these matches is 8:4 in favor of Nice
However, Brest won the most recent meeting 4:1
Key Players
For Nice, Sofiane Diop (7 season goals) and Mohamed-Ali Cho (4 goals, 2 assists) are crucial in attack
Defender Jonathan Clauss has already contributed 3 assists
For Brest, Romain Del Castillo with 6 season goals and Ludovic Ajorque with 5 assists are the most important attackers
Kamory Doumbia has also contributed 4 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Maxime Dupé was recently in goal for Nice
The team has kept 2 clean sheets this season
For Brest, Grégoire Coudert is the number one goalkeeper
His team has kept a clean sheet 5 times this season
Influences
At the Allianz Riviera, there has been an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 60% of these games
Nice has a poor home record on natural grass this season with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses
Brest has an away record on natural grass of 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses