Ligue 1
Monaco - Rennes
01/31/2026, 08:05 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.0
1.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
36%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Form advantage for Rennes: Monaco is winless in five games (0W, 2D, 3L), while Rennes has secured two wins in the same period
- Defensive stability: Rennes concedes significantly fewer goals per game (1.37) than Monaco (1.74), giving them an edge in a balanced match
- Weak home advantage: Monaco's poor record on natural grass (only 2 wins in 10 games) meets Rennes' strength on the same surface (5 wins in 10 games)
Risk Factors
- Fatigue for Monaco: Monaco had only 3 days of rest since their last match, while Rennes had 7 days to recover, which could be a decisive factor
- Prediction contradiction: The goal prediction of 1.52 vs 1.52 suggests a draw, which contradicts Monaco's disastrous form
- Statistical conflict: The high goal expectation (3.04 total) conflicts with the venue's statistics, which point to low-scoring games (2.0 goals on average)
Overview
Monaco, in 10th place in the table with 24 points, hosts Rennes, who are in 6th place with 31 points
The Ligue 1 match will take place on January 31, 2026, at 9:05 PM at the Stade Louis II
This is an upper-mid-table clash where Rennes aims to solidify its position for European spots, while Monaco looks to overcome its crisis
Form
Monaco: LLLDD - 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
Rennes: LWWDL - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
Monaco is in extremely poor form, winless in their last five matches
Rennes has been more inconsistent but has secured two wins in this period and enters the match with significantly better form
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Rennes is slightly stronger with an average of 1.58 goals per game compared to Monaco's 1.47
Defensively, Rennes is significantly more stable with 1.37 goals conceded per game, while Monaco concedes 1.74
Both teams are prone to conceding, reflected in the number of matches where both teams scored: 12 times for Monaco and 11 for Rennes
In 11 of 19 season matches for both teams, there were more than 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Monaco has won 4 times, while Rennes was successful only once
The goal difference is 9:8 in favor of Monaco
However, the last meeting ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Rennes on November 22, 2025
Although the historical record favors Monaco, Rennes sent a strong message in the last duel
Key Players
For Monaco, Folarin Balogun (4 season goals, 2 assists) and Ansu Fati (6 season goals) are the main attacking threats
Maghnes Akliouche has also contributed 3 goals and 2 assists
For Rennes, Estéban Lepaul is the key player with 8 goals and 3 assists
Breel Embolo (5 goals, 2 assists) is another important offensive force
Goalkeepers
Philipp Köhn is in goal for Monaco, having played in 13 matches this season
The team has a total of 3 clean sheets
Brice Samba is the goalkeeper for Rennes and has kept 5 clean sheets in 19 matches
Influences
The last five matches at Stade Louis II. have averaged only 2.0 goals, with both teams scoring in just 40% of cases
Monaco's record on natural grass is weak, with only 2 wins from 10 matches
In contrast, Rennes has a positive record on this surface with 5 wins from 10 matches, which could diminish Monaco's home advantage