Ligue 1
Lens - Le Havre
01/30/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.3
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
24%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Extreme home vs. away contrast: Lens is a force at home (only 0.4 goals conceded per game), while Le Havre is extremely vulnerable away (2.5 goals conceded per game)
- Superior offensive power: Lens scores more than twice as many goals per game as Le Havre (1.74 vs 0.84) and creates significantly more chances according to xG values
- Clear form and league table situation: The second-placed team with four wins from five games faces a team from the bottom third of the table that has won only one of its last five matches
Risk Factors
- Defensive absences for Lens: The absence of several defenders like J. Gradit and S. Baidoo could weaken their usually solid defense
- Low-scoring games at the stadium: Recent matches at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis have been tighter than expected, with an average of only 2.0 goals and a low rate of both teams scoring (20%)
- Le Havre's resilience: Despite their poor league position, Le Havre has lost only one of their last five matches and could prove to be a tough opponent to beat
Overview
Lens (2nd place, 43 points) hosts Le Havre (15th place, 20 points) at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis for a Ligue 1 match on January 30, 2026, at 8:45 PM
Lens is aiming to stay in the title race, while Le Havre is trying to increase the gap to the relegation zone
The home team enters the match as clear favorites based on their league position and home strength
Form
Lens: WWWWL - 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss
Le Havre: DLWDD - 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss
Lens is showing very strong form with four wins from the last five matches, even though they lost their last game
Le Havre is tough to beat, having lost only one of their last five games, but struggles to secure victories
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Lens has a significantly stronger offense, averaging 1.74 goals per game compared to Le Havre's 0.84
Defensively, Lens is also more stable with only 0.84 goals conceded per game (Le Havre: 1.26)
Lens's home advantage is significant: at home, they score an average of 1.7 goals and concede only 0.4
Le Havre is very vulnerable defensively away from home, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Lens won 2 times, Le Havre won once, and 2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is narrowly in favor of Lens at 8:7
Lens won the last meeting away from home with a score of 2-1
Key Players
For Lens, Wesley Saïd (8 goals, 2 assists) and Odsonne Édouard (7 goals, 2 assists) are the main attacking threats
Adrien Thomasson is a key creator with 6 assists
For Le Havre, Rassoul Ndiaye is the crucial player in midfield with 3 goals and 3 assists
Issa Soumaré has also scored 3 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Lens's starting goalkeeper, Robin Risser, has kept 7 clean sheets in 19 appearances this season
Le Havre's team has kept 6 clean sheets this season, with Mory Diaw playing in 16 of those matches
Influences
The home advantage for Lens is substantial, reflected in their strong home record of 1.7 goals scored to just 0.4 conceded per game
However, statistics from recent games at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis suggest lower-scoring matches (2.0 average goals per game, only 20% with both teams scoring)
Both teams play on natural grass, with Lens holding a record of 8 wins and 2 losses on this surface