Ligue 1
Paris - Olympique Marseille
01/31/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
36%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
31%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Clear offensive mismatch: Marseille's attack (2.32 goals/game) meets Paris's vulnerable defense (1.68 goals conceded/game)
- Negative form trend for both: According to advanced stats, both teams are recently scoring fewer goals than their season average
- Marseille's fatigue: With only 3 days of rest since their last match, recovery could be a significant disadvantage for the visitors
Risk Factors
- The short recovery time of only three days for Olympique Marseille could impact their performance
- The venue's statistics suggest a low-scoring game, which contradicts Marseille's strong offense
- Both teams are on a negative trend regarding goal scoring, which could lead to a lack of offensive firepower
Overview
Paris (14th place, 20 points) hosts Olympique Marseille (3rd place, 38 points) at the Stade Jean Bouin
The Ligue 1 match will take place on January 31, 2026, at 5:00 PM
Paris is fighting for crucial points against relegation, while Marseille aims to solidify its position among the top teams
Form
Paris form: LLWWL (from league table)
In the last five matches, there has been 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Olympique Marseille form: LWLWW (from league table)
In the last five matches, there have been 2 wins and 3 losses
Both teams show inconsistent form in their recent games
Statistics
Olympique Marseille is significantly stronger offensively, with an average of 2.32 goals scored per game compared to Paris's 1.26
Defensively, Marseille concedes an average of 1.05 goals, while Paris concedes 1.68
Away from home, Marseille scores an average of 2.43 goals per game
At Stade Jean Bouin, an average of 2.4 goals have been scored in recent matches, with both teams scoring in only 40% of cases
Head-to-Head
In the only head-to-head encounter so far, Olympique Marseille was victorious
The goal difference is 5:2 in favor of Marseille
The last duel took place on August 23, 2025, and ended with a 5-2 victory for Marseille
Key Players
For Paris, Ilan Kebbal is the key offensive player with 7 season goals and 4 assists
Moses Simon has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists
For Olympique Marseille, Mason Greenwood is the top scorer with 12 season goals
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been directly involved in 10 goals (5 goals, 5 assists)
Amine Gouiri has scored 3 goals in his last five appearances
Goalkeepers
Paris's goalkeeper, Kevin Trapp, has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Gerónimo Rulli of Olympique Marseille has kept his goal clean 6 times this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf, on which Paris has a home record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses
There is no performance data for Olympique Marseille on this surface
The stadium statistics suggest a lower-scoring game, with an average of only 2.4 goals and a 'Both teams to score' rate of 40%