Ligue 1
Toulouse - Auxerre
02/01/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.9
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
31%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
38%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Extreme contrast: Toulouse's strong offense meets Auxerre's catastrophic away defense, which concedes an average of 3.4 goals per game
- Form advantage: Toulouse comes with 4 wins from 5 games, while Auxerre is on a 4-game losing streak
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Toulouse is consistently dangerous at home, while Auxerre is toothless in attack and crumbles defensively on the road
Risk Factors
- Last duel: Despite the poor overall record, Auxerre won the last head-to-head meeting, suggesting psychological potential
- Stadium trend: Recent games at Toulouse's stadium have been uncharacteristically low-scoring, contradicting the expectation of a high-scoring match
- Absence of key players: Toulouse is missing an important goalscorer in Frank Magri, which could weaken their offense
Overview
Toulouse, in 8th place with 29 points, hosts Auxerre, who are in 17th place with 12 points
The Ligue 1 match will take place on February 1, 2026, at 5:15 PM at the Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse aims to solidify their position in the upper mid-table, while Auxerre urgently needs points in the relegation battle
Form
Toulouse is in excellent form with a record of WWLWW from their last five games, which corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss
Auxerre, on the other hand, is in a crisis with the form WLLLL, having lost their last 4 consecutive matches
The form curve clearly favors the home team
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Toulouse is significantly stronger offensively, scoring an average of 1.63 goals per game compared to Auxerre's 0.74
Defensively, Toulouse is more stable with 1.21 goals conceded per game, while Auxerre concedes 1.53
Auxerre's away weakness is particularly severe, having conceded 17 goals in 5 away games, an average of 3.4 per match
Toulouse scores an average of 1.58 goals per game at home
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Toulouse has the edge with 2 wins, while Auxerre has recorded 1 victory, and 2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Toulouse at 10:4
However, Auxerre won the last meeting 1-0
Key Players
Yann Gboho is a key figure for Toulouse with 6 goals and 4 assists this season
Santiago Hidalgo has contributed 4 goals and 2 assists
For Auxerre, Lassine Sinayoko is the most dangerous player with 6 goals and 2 assists to his name
Goalkeepers
Toulouse's goalkeeper Guillaume Restes has kept 7 clean sheets in 19 season appearances
Donovan Léon in goal for Auxerre has managed 3 clean sheets in 17 appearances
Influences
Toulouse shows a solid home record, averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded per game
However, the last five matches at the Stadium de Toulouse have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in only 20% of these home games