Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain - Olympique Marseille
02/08/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.0
1.3
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
31%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
39%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- PSG's home fortress: Scoring 2.2 goals per home game while conceding only 0.4 makes the Parc des Princes a stronghold
- Concentrated offensive power: Two of the league's best attacks face off, with both teams averaging over 6 shots on target per game
- Historical dominance: PSG has won 4 of the last 5 encounters with a 12:2 goal difference, giving them a psychological edge
Risk Factors
- PSG's recent dip in form: The home team's goal production has dropped from 2.4 to 1.6 goals per game, indicating a negative trend
- Marseille's defensive frailties: The visitors have conceded an average of 2.2 goals in recent games, significantly more than their season average of 1.29
- Missing goal threat for Marseille: The away team is missing players responsible for over 21% of their season's goals
Overview
A top Ligue 1 match is on the schedule: Paris Saint Germain (2nd place, 48 points) hosts Olympique Marseille (4th place, 39 points)
The match will take place on February 8, 2026, at 8:45 PM at the Parc des Princes
This is a classic rivalry where both teams aim to solidify their position at the top of the table
Form
Paris Saint Germain: WLWDW - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
Olympique Marseille: WLWLD - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
PSG is showing more stable form than the visitors from Marseille, who have had mixed results recently
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Paris Saint Germain has an impressive home record, scoring an average of 2.2 goals while conceding only 0.4 per game
Olympique Marseille is also very dangerous away from home, scoring an average of 2.38 goals, but is more vulnerable defensively with 1.38 goals conceded
At the Parc des Princes, recent matches have averaged 4.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of the cases
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Paris Saint Germain has the clear upper hand with 4 wins, while Olympique Marseille has recorded only one victory
The goal difference is 12:2 in favor of PSG
However, Marseille won the last meeting 1-0
Key Players
Bradley Barcola has already scored 7 goals for PSG this season, while Vitinha shines as a playmaker with 7 assists
Ousmane Dembélé has contributed 5 goals and 3 assists
For Marseille, Mason Greenwood is the standout goalscorer with 13 goals this season
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has 6 goals and 5 assists, and Amine Gouiri has scored 4 times
Goalkeepers
Matvey Safonov is in goal for Paris Saint Germain, whose team has kept 10 clean sheets this season
For Olympique Marseille, Jeffrey de Lange is the goalkeeper; the team has managed to keep a clean sheet in 6 matches
Influences
Paris Saint Germain's home advantage is significant, backed by a strong home record of 2.2 goals scored per game while conceding only 0.4
The Parc des Princes is known for high-scoring games, as shown by the average of 4.2 goals in the last five matches
Both teams are accustomed to the grass surface at the stadium and have good records on it