Ligue 1
Brest - Lorient
02/07/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.1
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
33%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
22%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Contrast in form: Lorient is unbeaten in 5 games, whereas Brest has only managed 1 win in their last 5 matches
- Defensive stability is key: Lorient's defense has improved significantly recently (0.75 goals conceded on average), while Brest's home defense is solid (1.18 goals)
- Low-scoring venue: In the last 5 matches at Stade Francis-Le Ble, both teams scored in only 20% of the games
Risk Factors
- Deceptive away form: Despite their winning streak, Lorient has conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away game this season
- Home pressure for Brest: The poor run of form could put Brest under pressure at home, potentially leading to errors
Overview
Brest (12th place, 23 points) hosts Lorient (9th place, 28 points) at the Stade Francis-Le Ble
Form
Lorient is in significantly better form, unbeaten in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws)
Statistics
Both teams are similarly potent offensively (Brest 1.3 goals/game, Lorient 1.35 goals/game)
Head-to-Head
The historical record is perfectly balanced with 2 wins for each team and 1 draw in the last 5 encounters
Key Players
For Brest, Romain Del Castillo (7 season goals) and Ludovic Ajorque (6 season assists) are crucial
Goalkeepers
Grégoire Coudert (Brest) and his team have kept 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
The stadium is historically low-scoring, with an average of only 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches