Super League
Zürich - Luzern
02/14/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.7
1.9
1:2
8%2:1
8%2:2
7%1:3
5%3:1
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
24%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
71%
Under 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
50%
Under 3.5
50%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
72%
No
28%
Key Factors
- Critical absences for Zürich: The home team is missing key attacking players, leaving only 50% of their usual goal threat on the pitch
- Vulnerable defenses: Both teams concede nearly two goals per game on average, which, combined with high Over 2.5 rates, points to a high-scoring match
- Luzern's stable form: The visitors are unbeaten in four games, while Zürich has suffered three defeats in their last five matches
Risk Factors
- Extremely balanced prediction: The mathematical models predict a very close game (38% home win vs. 39% away win), so small details could be decisive
- Potential fatigue for Zürich: The home team has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could become a factor in the later stages
- Unpredictability due to Zürich's squad: The numerous absences make the home team's performance difficult to predict and could lead to surprises
Overview
Zürich (8th place, 28 points) host Luzern (9th place, 27 points) at Stadion Letzigrund
It's a close Super League clash on February 14, 2026, 6:00 PM
The teams are separated by only one point in the table, suggesting a balanced encounter
Form
Zürich's form across all competitions is D-L-L-L-W (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
They recently secured a 3-0 victory against Winterthur
Luzern's form is L-D-D-D-W (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
The visitors are unbeaten in four matches and last won 4-3 against Grasshopper
In the league, Zürich's form is L-D-W-L-W, while Luzern's is W-D-L-W-D
Statistics
Both teams are strong offensively, with Luzern averaging 1.83 goals per game and Zürich 1.5
Both teams' defenses are vulnerable; Zürich concedes an average of 1.88 goals, while Luzern concedes 1.92
In 18 of Luzern's 24 league games, there have been over 2.5 goals, a statistic matched by Zürich in their 24 games
Stadion Letzigrund is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals in the last five matches here
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Zürich, 1 win for Luzern, and 2 draws
The goal difference is completely even at 9:9 goals
The last encounter was won by Zürich at home with a score of 3:2
Key Players
Philippe Paulin Keny is Zürich's top scorer with 10 season goals, supported by Bledian Krasniqi with 6 assists
Umeh Emmanuel has also contributed 4 assists
For Luzern, Matteo Di Giusto is the standout player with 8 goals and 9 assists
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira has scored 6 goals and Julian Von Moos has 4
Goalkeepers
Silas Huber is in goal for Zürich
The team has kept 2 clean sheets this season
Pascal Loretz will be in goal for Luzern
Luzern has managed to keep 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
Zürich's home record is mixed, with an average of 1.47 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded
Luzern is dangerous away from home with 1.8 goals per game, but also concedes 1.9 goals
The statistics for Stadion Letzigrund suggest a high-scoring game, with both teams scoring in 80% of the last matches