Ligue 1
Paris - Lens
02/14/2026, 08:05 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.8
1.7
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
8%2:1
6%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
27%
Away Win
49%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
51%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Class difference in the table: Second-placed Lens faces the 15th, suggesting a clear quality advantage for the visitors
- Defensive stability vs. vulnerability: Lens has one of the best defenses in the league (0.81 goals conceded/game), while Paris is very vulnerable defensively (1.62 goals conceded/game)
- Form curve and momentum: Lens arrives with four wins from five games, while Paris is winless in three, highlighting the visitors' favorite status
Risk Factors
- Unfamiliar surface: Lens has no recorded matches on artificial turf, which could affect their style of play and be an advantage for the home team
- Statistical home advantage: Despite their poor league position, Paris concedes slightly fewer goals at home (1.55 per game) than away (1.7)
- Potential for a low-scoring game: Recent matches at the Stade Jean Bouin have averaged only 2.0 goals, which suggests a high-scoring affair is not guaranteed
Overview
A top Ligue 1 clash is on the schedule as second-placed Lens (49 points) travel to face Paris (15th place, 22 points)
The match will take place on February 14, 2026, at 9:05 PM at the Stade Jean Bouin
It's a clash of opposites, with a title contender taking on a team from the lower half of the table
Form
Paris's form in the last five matches across all competitions: L-W-D-D-D
The team has one win, three draws, and one loss, with the last three games ending in a draw
Lens's form across all competitions: W-W-L-W-W
The visitors have won four of their last five matches and come into this game on a two-game winning streak
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Lens has a significantly stronger offense, averaging 1.76 goals per game compared to Paris's 1.24
The defensive gap is even wider: Lens concedes just 0.81 goals per game, while Paris lets in 1.62
Away from home, Lens is particularly dangerous with 1.78 goals per game, while Paris concedes an average of 1.55 goals at home
In 13 of Paris's 21 matches, there have been over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
The only head-to-head match recorded so far was won by Lens with a score of 2-1
This match took place in October 2025
Due to the limited data, the historical record is of limited significance
Key Players
For Paris, Ilan Kebbal is the key man in attack with 8 season goals and 4 assists
Ciro Immobile is also featured in the attack
Lens boasts a formidable offense with Wesley Saïd (8 goals) and Odsonne Édouard (8 goals)
Adrien Thomasson is a key playmaker in midfield with 6 assists
Goalkeepers
Paris's goalkeeper, Kevin Trapp, has kept a clean sheet in 5 of 21 league matches this season
Robin Risser of Lens has a better record with 8 clean sheets in 21 appearances
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf, on which Paris has a record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses
There is no data for Lens's games on this surface, which could be a factor
The last five matches at the Stade Jean Bouin have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.0 goals per game