Ligue 1
Le Havre - Toulouse
02/15/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
10%0:1
10%2:1
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
32%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Contrast of strengths: Le Havre's very stable home defense (0.67 goals conceded on average) meets Toulouse's potent attack (1.48 goals per game)
- Offensive superiority of Toulouse, who have already scored 31 goals this season, while Le Havre has only 18
- The mathematical prediction is extremely balanced, with probabilities between 32% and 35% for all three outcomes, suggesting an open match
Risk Factors
- Toulouse must do without suspended attacker Frank Magri (5 season goals), which could weaken their offense
- Le Havre has failed to score in 9 of 21 season matches, highlighting their struggles in attack
Overview
Le Havre (13th place, 23 points) host Toulouse (9th place, 30 points) at the Stade Océane
Ligue 1 match on February 15, 2026, 3:00 PM
A mid-table clash where both teams are aiming for important points
Form
Le Havre's form in the last 5 matches: WDDLW
This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Toulouse enters the match with a record of LWWDL, which is 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The form of both teams is therefore quite balanced
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Toulouse is more potent offensively, averaging 1.48 goals per game compared to Le Havre's 0.86
However, Le Havre shines with a strong home defense, conceding only 0.67 goals per game at home
Toulouse is dangerous on the road, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per match
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct duels, the record is completely even
Both teams have won 2 games each, with 1 draw
The goal difference slightly favors Toulouse at 7:4
The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw
Key Players
For Le Havre, Issa Soumaré (4 season goals, 2 assists), Rassoul Ndiaye (3 goals, 3 assists), and defender Arouna Sangante are crucial
For Toulouse, Yann Gboho (6 goals, 4 assists), Aron Dønnum (3 goals, 4 assists), and midfielder Cristian Cásseres Jr. are key players
Goalkeepers
Mory Diaw in goal for Le Havre has kept 6 clean sheets this season
His counterpart, Guillaume Restes of Toulouse, has 8 clean sheets
Influences
Le Havre benefits from a strong home record, especially defensively, with only 0.67 goals conceded per game
Recent matches at the Stade Océane have tended to be low-scoring, with an average of just 1.4 goals in the last five games