Ligue 1
LOSC Lille - Brest
02/14/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
29%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Critical personnel issues for Lille: The home team is missing key attacking players, leaving only 47% of their usual goal threat available
- Brest's defensive vulnerability: The visitors concede an average of 2.22 goals away from home, which is a major weakness
- Tactical duel: Lille's dominant possession-based football (60% average) meets Brest's counter-attacking approach, which should give the home team control of the game
Risk Factors
- Poor goal conversion for Lille: Due to absences and a negative attacking form trend (only 0.75 goals in recent games), Lille might struggle to convert their dominance into goals
- Inconsistent form of Lille: Despite their better league position, Lille has shown poor form across all competitions recently, with only one win in five games (LLWLD)
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical models predict a very close game, with only slight differences in the win probabilities for both teams and the draw
Overview
LOSC Lille, in 6th place with 33 points, hosts Brest, currently 12th with 26 points
The Ligue 1 match will take place on February 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille aims to stay in touch with the European places, while Brest looks to solidify their position in the mid-table
The mathematical analysis slightly favors Lille with a 40% win probability, while a Brest victory is rated at 31% and a draw at 29%
Form
LOSC Lille (All competitions): LLWLD
In the last 5 matches, there has been 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
However, their league form is significantly better at DWWWL
Brest (All competitions): WLLDW
The team has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games
Their pure league form is DLLLW
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
LOSC Lille scores an average of 1.62 goals per game and concedes 1.43
At home, their attack is slightly stronger with 1.7 goals per game
Brest averages 1.33 goals per game but concedes 1.57
Brest's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.22 goals per game
In 10 of Brest's 21 games, both teams scored
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, LOSC Lille has won 2, Brest has won 1, and 2 ended in a draw
The goal difference is very balanced at 8:7 in favor of Lille
The last encounter ended in a high-scoring 3:3 draw
Overall, Lille has a slight advantage in recent meetings
Key Players
HĂ„kon Arnar Haraldsson has contributed 5 goals and 1 assist for Lille this season
Olivier Giroud has scored 4 goals for the season
MatĂas FernĂĄndez-Pardo has been directly involved in 6 goals (3 goals, 3 assists)
For Brest, Romain Del Castillo is the top scorer with 7 goals and 2 assists
Ludovic Ajorque is the team's key playmaker with 3 goals and 6 assists
RĂšmy Labeau Lascary has scored 3 goals so far
Goalkeepers
Berke Ăzer has been in goal for Lille in 19 matches
For Brest, Grégoire Coudert has played as goalkeeper in 12 games
Both teams have managed 6 clean sheets so far this season
Influences
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, an average of 2.6 goals per game have been scored in the last five matches
The rate for matches where both teams scored was only 20%
Lille tends to be strong at home, scoring an average of 1.7 goals while conceding only 1.2
This contrasts with Brest's weak away defense, which concedes 2.22 goals per game