Ligue 1
Monaco - Nantes
02/13/2026, 08:05 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.6
1.3
2:1
9%3:1
7%2:2
6%3:0
6%1:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
60%
Draw
22%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
69%
Under 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
47%
Under 3.5
53%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
40%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Drastic form disparity: Monaco's strong league form (4 wins in 5 games) meets Nantes' negative streak of 4 consecutive losses
- Offensive advantage: Monaco's attack, which recently improved to 2.5 goals per game, faces one of the league's weakest defenses (1.76 goals conceded/game)
- Historical dominance: Monaco is unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head encounters (3 wins, 2 draws) with a goal difference of 21:9
Risk Factors
- Monaco's inconsistency: Despite good league results, the overall form (LDDWD) with three draws in the last five games shows some inconsistency
- Missing goal threat for Monaco: With Takumi Minamino, a key player is missing, leaving only 69% of the usual goal production active in the squad
Overview
Monaco (10th place, 28 points) host Nantes (17th place, 14 points) at the Stade Louis II.
The Ligue 1 match takes place on February 13, 2026, 9:05 PM
Monaco is looking to solidify its mid-table position, while Nantes urgently needs points in the relegation battle
The mathematical analysis favors Monaco with a win probability of around 60%
Form
Monaco's form across all competitions is LDDWD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
In the league, however, Monaco has been convincing with four wins from their last five games (WLWWW)
Nantes is in a deep crisis with four consecutive losses and an overall form of WLLLL (1 win, 4 losses)
Nantes' league form is LLWLD, highlighting their difficult situation
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Monaco scores an average of 1.52 goals per game, and 1.57 at home
Nantes' offense is significantly less dangerous with an average of 0.90 goals per game (0.90 away)
Defensively, Nantes is more vulnerable, conceding 1.76 goals per game compared to Monaco's 1.57
In 60% of Monaco's matches and 48% of Nantes' matches, there have been over 2.5 goals
At Stade Louis II., the average number of goals is 2.6 per game
Head-to-Head
Monaco has clearly dominated in the last five head-to-head encounters
The home team won three matches, while two games ended in a draw
Nantes has not won any of the last five meetings
The goal difference of 21:9 in favor of Monaco speaks for itself
The last match ended in a 5:3 victory for Monaco
Key Players
Folarin Balogun has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists this season
Maghnes Akliouche is also a key pillar in Monaco's attack with 4 goals and 2 assists
Lamine Camara stands out in midfield with 3 assists
For Nantes, Matthis Abline is the most dangerous player with 4 goals and 2 assists
Fabien Centonze, a defender, has already scored 2 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Monaco's goalkeeper Philipp Köhn has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Anthony Lopes in goal for Nantes has managed 3 clean sheets so far
Influences
Monaco enjoys a clear home advantage, reflected in a positive goal difference at Stade Louis II. (22 goals scored, 18 conceded)
The venue's statistics suggest entertaining matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game and an over 2.5 goals rate of 60% in the last five games