Ligue 1
Rennes - Paris Saint Germain
02/13/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
3.0
2.0
1:1
11%1:2
10%0:2
10%1:3
7%0:3
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
17%
Draw
24%
Away Win
59%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
41%
Away or Draw
83%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Superiority of PSG: The league leaders are superior in form, head-to-head encounters, and season statistics. The mathematical analysis supports this with a 59% win probability
- Contrasting forms: While PSG arrives with two consecutive wins (Form: LWDWW), Rennes is in a crisis after three straight losses (Form: WDLLL)
- Offensive showdown: PSG's extremely strong attack (averaging 2.33 away goals) meets Rennes' usually solid home defense (only 0.85 goals conceded at home)
Risk Factors
- Rennes' slump in form: Rennes' offense has recently weakened significantly, scoring an average of only 0.8 goals in recent games, far below their season average of 1.5
- High-scoring games at Roazhon Park: The stadium's statistics, with an average of 3.6 goals and a high rate for 'Both teams to score' (80%), suggest an open game
Overview
Rennes (6th place, 31 points) hosts league leaders Paris Saint Germain (1st place, 51 points) at Roazhon Park
The Ligue 1 match kicks off on February 13, 2026, at 7:00 PM
The situation is clear: the title contenders travel as clear favorites for the clash with an upper mid-table team
Form
The form curves of the two teams could hardly be more different
Rennes are in a crisis with only one win from their last five games (Form: WDLLL) and three consecutive losses
Paris Saint Germain, on the other hand, travel with a strong form of LWDWW, having won their last two matches
PSG's league form is WWWWL, while Rennes' is WLDWD
Statistics
Paris Saint Germain dominates the statistical comparisons
With an average of 2.29 goals scored per game, they are significantly more dangerous than Rennes (1.48)
Defensively, PSG is also superior with only 0.76 goals conceded per game, while Rennes has to accept 1.62
However, a strength of Rennes is their home defense, where they concede an average of only 0.85 goals
PSG remains a force away from home with 2.33 goals scored per game
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head comparison speaks volumes for Paris Saint Germain
In the last five encounters, PSG won four, with one match ending in a draw
Rennes has been waiting for a win against the capital club for five games
The goal difference of 16:4 in favor of PSG underscores this dominance
The last meeting ended in a clear 5-0 victory
Key Players
For Rennes, offensive hopes rest on Estéban Lepaul, who has already scored 9 goals this season
In midfield, Valentin Rongier is a key player
Paris Saint Germain has a wealth of top players
Vitinha shines as a provider with 7 assists
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia proves his goal-scoring threat with 4 goals and 3 assists
Full-back Nuno Mendes is also always dangerous with 3 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
In goal for Rennes is Brice Samba, who has kept 5 clean sheets in 20 games this season
For Paris Saint Germain, Matvey Safonov is the goalkeeper
The club has kept a total of 11 clean sheets this season
Influences
Roazhon Park is known for high-scoring games
In Rennes' last five home matches, there was an average of 3.6 goals per game, and both teams scored in 80% of cases
Rennes is significantly more stable defensively at home, conceding an average of only 0.85 goals
This could be a key factor against PSG's strong offense