Match report →
Sassuolo – Frosinone1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sassuolo
1.94
Total xG
2.80
Frosinone
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sassuolo | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.95 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Armand Laurienté on the bench (7 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Nemanja Matic on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 68% of goal output missing (only 40% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Weakened home side: Only 40% of the usual goal threat is available with Armand Laurienté and Nemanja Matic missing from the lineup
- Attacking metrics: Sassuolo averaged 6.0 shots on target per match recently compared to 3.8 for Frosinone
- Model favorite: The mathematical analysis projects a 61% probability for a home win
Risks
- Squad setback: Midfielder R. Schmid is missing for Frosinone due to muscle fatigue
- Sassuolo defensive vulnerability: The hosts conceded an average of 1.32 goals per match last season
- Limited data availability: No head-to-head history is available in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Sassuolo61%
Draw24%
Frosinone15%
Double chance
Sassuolo or draw85%
Frosinone or draw39%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sassuolo: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Sassuolo 4-2-3-1 · Frosinone 4-3-3
Sassuolo
- 80 S. Turati
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 16 F. Leysen
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 8 A. Ghion
- 35 L. Lipani
- 7 C. Volpato
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
Frosinone
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 5 W. Amey
- 71 A. Terzić
- 70 L. Hasa
- 27 F. Grillitsch
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 40 S. Fini
- 11 D. Birligea
- 24 A. Zerbin
Substitutes
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 50 D. Bakola
- 17 V. Adžić
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 20 I. Brempt
- 18 N. Matić
- 49 A. Murić
- 21 J. Idzes
- 10 D. Berardi
- 12 G. Satalino
- 3 J. Doig
- 45 A. Lauriente
- 19 L. Skjellerup
- 94 S. Esposito
- 14 G. Kulla
- 73 P. Masini
- 14 G. Calò
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 9 A. Raimondo
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 16 M. Cichella
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
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