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Coppa Italia

Sassuolo - Frosinone

09/02/2026, 01:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Sassuolo
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Frosinone
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SASFRO

Sassuolo

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.95
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.09
Armand Laurienté on the bench (7 goals, 9 assists)
Nemanja Matic on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
68% of goal output missing (only 40% available)

Frosinone

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sassuolo: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Weakened home side: Only 40% of the usual goal threat is available with Armand Laurienté and Nemanja Matic missing from the lineup
  • Attacking metrics: Sassuolo averaged 6.0 shots on target per match recently compared to 3.8 for Frosinone
  • Model favorite: The mathematical analysis projects a 61% probability for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Squad setback: Midfielder R. Schmid is missing for Frosinone due to muscle fatigue
  • Sassuolo defensive vulnerability: The hosts conceded an average of 1.32 goals per match last season
  • Limited data availability: No head-to-head history is available in the provided dataset
Overview

Sassuolo host Frosinone at the MAPEI Stadium

Coppa Italia match on September 2, 2026, 3:00 PM

The hosts enter this cup tie as favorites

Form

Sassuolo form is LLWLW following a 2-1 win against Torino

Frosinone form is WLWLW after a recent 3-0 win at Fiorentina

Form comparison shows a balanced record with victories in their last matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sassuolo scored an average of 1.21 goals per game last season while conceding 1.32

Sassuolo improved their recent scoring rate to an average of 1.6 goals per game

Frosinone scored 4 goals in their single game of the current season

Matches at the MAPEI Stadium historically average 3.2 total goals per game

Key Players

Cristian Volpato shows rising form with 1 goal in his last 4 appearances

Kristian Thorstvedt remains stable with a rating of 6.84 over his last 2 games

Luca Lipani featured in 3 of the last 5 matches and shows positive development

Goalkeepers

Stefano Turati starts in goal for Sassuolo, holding a venue average rating of 6.64

Sebastiano Desplanches is set to guard the goal for Frosinone

Influences

Sassuolo has home advantage at the MAPEI Stadium on natural grass

High-scoring trend with 3.2 average goals in the last five home games

No weather data available for this matchday

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