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Coppa Italia

Torino - Monza

09/01/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Torino
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Monza
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
TORMON

Torino

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Nikola Vlašić on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
Marcus Pedersen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 43% available)

Monza

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.60
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Torino: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Only 43% of the home goal threat is available, with Nikola Vlašić and Marcus Pedersen missing
  • Torino averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Monza's 3.8
  • The mathematical model calculates a 48% home win probability for Torino
Risk Factors
  • Both teams with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Torino recorded balanced possession (53%) with an average of only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data on Monza's away form in the dataset
Overview

Torino host Monza at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Coppa Italia clash on September 1, 2026, 9:00 PM

A competitive cup fixture in Italy

Form

Torino form is LDWLL with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses

Monza form is LWLL with 1 win and 3 losses

Both teams suffered two consecutive losses in their recent games

Statistics

Torino scores an average of 1.16 goals and concedes 1.66 goals per season

Monza scored three goals and conceded zero in their single recorded match

Torino averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded at home

Advanced stats show Torino averaging 1.29 goals per season and Monza averaging 1.5 goals

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in total

Torino has 1 win, Monza 0 wins and 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for Torino

Key Players

Giovanni Simeone scored 11 season goals with an average rating of 6.85

Defender Saúl Coco recorded 1 season goal and 1 assist with a rating of 6.88

Gvidas Gineitis has 1 assist this season with an improved recent rating of 7.02

Goalkeepers

Lucas Perri guards the goal for Torino, who recorded 12 clean sheets this season

Demba Thiam starts in goal for Monza, who have 1 clean sheet so far

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game over the last 5 matches

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of the last 5 home games

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