Match report →
Torino – Monza0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Torino
1.41
Total xG
2.27
Monza
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Torino | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.60 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Nikola Vlašić on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marcus Pedersen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 43% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 43% of the home goal threat is available, with Nikola Vlašić and Marcus Pedersen missing
- Torino averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Monza's 3.8
- The mathematical model calculates a 48% home win probability for Torino
Risks
- Both teams with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Torino recorded balanced possession (53%) with an average of only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data on Monza's away form in the dataset
All probabilities
Result
Torino48%
Draw30%
Monza21%
Double chance
Torino or draw79%
Monza or draw52%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
Lineups
Torino 5-3-2 · Monza 3-4-2-1
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 29 N. Fortini
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 79 A. Luongo
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 18 G. Simeone
- 17 S. Kulenovic
Monza
- 20 D. Thiam
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 5 Y. Maye
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 11 O. Forson
- 46 J. Robinson
- 47 D. Carvalho
Substitutes
- 5 E. Cömert
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 14 F. Anjorin
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 19 C. Adams
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
- 96 Z. Kugyela
- 63 M. Carrascosa Moreno
- 4 J. Ziółkowski
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 27 I. Touré
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 28 A. Colpani
- 21 L. Colombo
- 44 A. Carboni
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 80 M. Mout
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